Kungakanani izindleko amafutha 2008? Dynamics of amanani, izinhlobo amanani, ukwakheka izindleko

Izindleko emgqonyeni uwoyela umaka grade has nomthelela obalulekile umnotho we uthi eziholayo ingasetshenziswa njenge thuluzi lezepolitiki. amanani Falling abe nomthelela omubi emnothweni kweSoviet Union, idlala indima juqu inhlekelele yezombangazwe oqubuke kule 80s sekwephuzile, ibangele wokugoqa wase-USSR. Ekushintshashintsheni ukubaluleka umthelela isisetshenziswa ngesabelomali isimo Russia yesimanje, umnotho jikelele futhi intengo nezinye esibalulekile nokuthengiswa Russian - igesi yemvelo.

Izindleko kawoyela ngokuvamile kuqhathaniswa ne-2008, lapho umphumela sezomnotho esimanzonzo emhlabeni, kwakukhona nciphisa kwamanani. Ngesikhathi esifanayo salotshwa kanye zomlando esiphezulu value. Kungakanani izindleko amafutha 2008? Izinga ubuncane ukubaluleka isisetshenziswa safinyelela ngosuku emva Christmas, kuyilapho inani eliphakeme sabhalwa ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ngaphambili - Wesine July.

Intengo kawoyela - inkomba yokuthi izenzakalo eziningi in the kwezepolitiki futhi ukuthonya umnotho wezwe ehola. Kodwa ngaphambi kutfungatsa iyehla iyenyuka isisetshenziswa izindleko, kufanele ukubhekana izinhlobo intengo, izindleko, oda kumiswa izindleko zokugcina.

Izinhlobo amanani kawoyela: ebangeni umaka yomthombo

Ukuze lula inqubo yokuhweba Kuyinto evamile ukusebenzisa inkomba eziningana (umaka noma ejwayelekile) amamaki lamafutha. Izindleko izinhlobo eziningi imithombo encike ngqo noma ngokungaqondile intengo emakethe kwakheka kwi amakilasi kwezilandelayo:

• Dubai / Oman (Oman ongahluziwe kanye ngo-2007) - zidayiswa ikakhulukazi ezimakethe zase-Asia.
• Brent ongahluziwe Oil - misela ku emikhawulweni Norway neScotland, yakhiwa izinhlobo eziningana izinto zokusetshenziswa. ezihlukahlukene Model liyindinganiso igolide sokunquma izindleko amafutha e-Europe kanye namazwe OPEC. Ngokusho izingcaphuno lamafutha, kwakhiwa Brent intengo ku brand Urals yasekhaya.
• EWest Texas Intermediate (owaziwa nangokuthi esithi WTI) - uwoyela Texas, kwakheka izindleko okuyinto okwamanje kwezidingo leso sizinda isitoreji-Oklahoma, eU.SA.

Nokho, amavolumu yalezi amamaki of umkhiqizo kawoyela lincane uma liqhathaniswa isilinganiso, ukucacisa izindleko iningi supply nezinye brand.

Intengo izindleko umthombo per unit umthamo

amanani kawoyela acabangele Dynamics ukubaluleka kokugcina kwalezi zinsiza, okuyinto isamba wekhasi kanye nezindleko - Imininingwane izindleko yemali kuzona inkampani ngesikhathi umkhiqizo kawoyela. Izindleko yakhiwa izingxenye ezilandelayo:

• Ukukhiqizwa izindleko, izintela kanye nezinye izimali ezibanjwayo saziso (Imali ububanzi kusukela emaRandini ayizigidi emihlanu kuya kweyishumi umphongolo).
• Izindleko ukuhlola kanye nokuthuthukiswa uwoyela Amasimu (kuncike esifundeni, izindleko isukela eziyisikhombisa ezingamashumi amane amadola).
• izindleko Shipping (hhayi njalo imbangela ucatshangelwe, kodwa kuphela ngokwezinga okudingeka senze ngalo).
• Ukuze Amasimu sogu lolwandle akha cishe amathathu amaphesenti umkhiqizo kawoyela emhlabeni inani kungenzeka eminye adinga operation Ukuhoxiswa esikhungweni sokumba uwoyela.

Izindleko umkhiqizo kawoyela balinganiselwa ku amadola amabili nesishiyagalolunye ngokwesilinganiso ngamunye emgqonyeni. Kungakanani izindleko amafutha 2008? Nge ukuwa ubuncane ukubaluleka isisetshenziswa izinkampani uwoyela wathola dollar elilodwa emgqonyeni amane kuphela, kuyilapho ngesikhathi intengo isiqongo safinyelela ukuzuza eyikhulu namashumi zamadola noma ngaphezulu.

Kumiswa amanani yokugcina uwoyela

Intengo yokugcina uwoyela (ithebula noma igrafu ukuqhathanisa, njengoba umthetho, futhi libonisa ukubaluleka kokugcina) bathonywe izinto eziningana. Ukubala kuthatha isimo sezombangazwe samanje somnotho, kodwa determinant eyisisekelo izindleko 80-85%, iyona isilinganiso kwaneliswe isidingo. Isiphetho esinjalo emsebenzini yesayensi enesihloko esithi "Ucwaningo of izici kumiswa amanani kawoyela ...» ERI eyenziwe Russian Academy of Sciences.

Ngakho, ake sibheke lokho kwaba intengo kawoyela eminyakeni. Luhlelo uyobonisa isimo. Idatha inikezwe kusukela engxenyeni yesibili yekhulu nesishiyagalolunye kuze 2011. Eshadini, ngasendleleni, bubonakala ngokucacile intengo yamafutha 2008 - falling kalula okhetheke khulu.

I umugqa oluhlaza libonisa ukubaluleka ezikhona kuleyo United States dollar, ijika orange limelela ezingeni intengo 2015 zamadola. Idatha yangaphambi 1945 ezihlobana izindleko amafutha e-United States kuze 1885 emelelwa sha Arabian Khanyisa, nangemva - indinganiso samanje, ka Brent grade nsiza.

Ukwanda kwenani isisetshenziswa ekuqaleni kowezi-2000

Dynamics of amanani, ecacisa ochwepheshe international, eziqala kowezi-2000, lapho amanani kawoyela anda ngenxa impi yase-Iraq, ezingeni lokukhula ngokufunwa, ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa by Indonesia, e-UK eMexico, kanye Ukuwohloka emazweni Gulf. Ukungazinzi eMpumalanga Ephakathi uye waholela ukwanda intengo kawoyela e-dollar ayishumi ngosuku, Juni 6, 2008. Ngo-July 4, ukubaluleka komkhiqizo safinyelela cishe 144 zamadola emgqonyeni (143.95) ngayinye.

I inhlekelele yembulunga yonke futhi wokugoqa ngo-2008

Kungakanani uwoyela izindleko ngo-2008? Lokho okwakudingeka ukuze kukhokhwe resource ka-December 26, 2008 safinyelela cishe engamashumi amathathu nane zamadola umphongolo. Intengo ongaphakeme wamafutha 2008 yathatha isikhathi esifushane: kakade ehlobo lika-2009, intengo simsebenzela futhi.

Kuqiniswa amanani emva crisis

Ngemva sokuthola kunezinkinga zemali global (ngo-2010) ezingeni amanani kawoyela uhlaliseke. Izindleko emgqonyeni ngaleso sikhathi kwakuwukuthola mayelana ayisikhombisa ayisishiyagalombili zamadola. Ukukhula uqalisiwe ngenxa izinkinga sezombusazwe kuleliya Libya kanye umlilo lapho kuhluzwa khona e-United States, bese intengo waqala ukuba bawe ngenxa yezinkinga e-European Union.

Ukuwa emakethe uwoyela ngenxa ukunqwabelana izinto zokusetshenziswa

Ngo-2014, intengo Brent lehla ngezansi ayisishiyagalolunye zamadola emgqonyeni. Okokhelekayo funa elalinamandla lawa, futhi ngesikhathi esifanayo, kwakubikwa supply ngokweqile. Ngasekuqaleni kuka-2015 intengo kawoyela uwile kakhulu. Izinga ubuncane 45.13 zamadola ngayinye emgqonyeni sibalo safinyelela weshumi nantathu Januwari. Kungakanani izindleko uwoyela ngo-2008 futhi 2015 m? Lena izinkomba ngempela wafana. Futhi izici eziye zaholela ukwehlisa amanani, okungafaniswa - futhi eqinisweni, futhi kwelinye icala, waba nethonya juqu isimo somnotho emhlabeni wonke.

Ukuqina nomunye iconsi enanini

Ingakapheli inyanga ngemva kokuwa ngo-2015, intengo kawoyela uhlaliseke, kodwa hhayi isikhathi eside. Izilinganiso kusakazwe phansi ehlobo lika-2016 ngenxa ukuwohloka ku isitokwe yaseChina Iran isimemezelo izinhlelo emakethe ukwandisa uwoyela nokuthengiswa ngemva bephakamisa unswinyo. Futhi uthole lezi zindaba zokuthi United States esikhathini esizayo esiseduze bayahamba ukuba sifake ubukghoni ukukhiqizwa.