Kwenzakalani ruble eRussia? Sinjani isimo kulo nyaka 2014?

Mhlawumbe abantu abambalwa kakhulu ukushiya ulwazi ngabandayo mayelana nokushintsha inkambo lwemali Russian. Izizathu nokuwa Ruble abe isihloko ezishisa mpikiswano. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, phezu Kule minyaka emihlanu edlule, lwemali kazwelonke Wethule angaphezu kweshumi nambili baseRussia lezimanga. Phakathi eziningi zezomnotho yasekhaya zinombono ukuthi kwenzekani manje ne-ruble, kuwumphumela oqondile izenzakalo 2008. Ingxenye kuyiqiniso, kodwa Dynamics wanamuhla lwemali kazwelonke okuyinto wancika ngokwengeziwe isimo samanje izimali zethu futhi isimo sezombangazwe samanje.

Kukhunjulwa 2008

Cishe wonke umuntu unombono ngezimbangela nemiphumela nesimo esibucayi sina global. Empeleni, namuhla akubalulekile kangako, noma ngabe kwaba senziwa abadlali kwezimakethe zomhlaba wonke, noma umphumela uzungu emhlabeni. Okuningi banesithakazelo kulokho waphenduka le micimbi uhlelo lwezimali yasekhaya. Nazi ezinye izibalo ezibonisa umthelela wale nkinga Russia:

• Phakathi nonyaka owodwa 54 credit izikhungo wezwe abangu kwavala, nge 47 babo baye bancishwa amalayisense yasebhange.
• dollar rose ruble 23,4186. ku 01.08.2008 kuze ruble 29,3804. 31.12.2008 (25.4% izinyanga 5); ukuze 01.08.2009, dollar angizisoli ruble 31,1533. (33.1% - kwesilinganiso sokudlondlobala unyaka 1).

Lezi zinombolo zibonisa ngokucacile ukuthi buhlungu ngenxa the 2008 Inkinga iye owenziwe ezezimali Russian. Buyisa ku-ke, izakhamuzi zethu ayengakwenza babeneminyaka embalwa kuphela.

2009-2011,

Phakathi nale nkathi, emnothweni Russian is kancane kancane uyalulama, futhi kwezimakethe wafuna ukubuyela izikhundla zabo zangaphambili. Naphezu kuqiniswa izuzwe of the ruble exchange rate futhi umkhiqizo evezwe izimboni ahlukene, the ruble ukuqhubeka kancane kancane bawe intengo.

Yiqiniso, le nqubo kwakungelona lwento, kodwa ngokuvamile, lo mkhuba yayisobala ngempela: ekuqaleni 2010 dollar angizisoli ruble 30,1851, ngo-2011 - 30,3505 ruble, ngo-2012 - 32,1961 ruble ... Ngakho, i-ruble yawela 6,68% eminyakeni engu-3. Lokhu Dynamics kwamukelekile ngempela ukuqaphela konke: Uhulumeni Russian futhi isibalo sabantu ezweni lonke. Umbuzo nalokho okwenzeka izinga lokushintshisana kwe-ruble, exinwe abaseRussia kunalokho ebuthakathaka kule nkathi. Ngenxa yalokho, kwehle ngekucabangela takhamuti Russian ukuthenga izimali zakwamanye amazwe ngokheshi, kanye ukuwulondoloza ngesimo ezifakwa emabhange.

2012

Ngeshwa, zonke izinto ezinhle kumelwe siphele: kudala njengoba Meyi 2012, i-ruble aqala ukuncipha ngokuhlobene ehola zezimali zomhlaba. Ngenxa omkhulu lwemali ukungenelela kwe-Central Bank, kanye iziqinisekiso zakhe okuphindiwe ukuzinza ezezimali yasekhaya, ukwehla ke akazange ame. Nokho, i-dollar namanje kukhuphuke ngo cishe 2 ruble, ne-euro - by 2.5.

AmaRashiya kukhona futhi unesithakazelo umbuzo ukuthi kwenzekani pocketbooks yabo. Namuhla, ehola zezomnotho yasekhaya futhi ososayensi zezombusazwe bavame ukuchaza ke iwe lwemali wezwe ngenxa yezizathu bendabuko:

• amanani aphansi amafutha;
• izinkinga umnotho European;
• ukukhathazeka zimali 'mayelana igagasi elisha ngeni yezimali.

Ngaleso sikhathi, ukwehla kwentengo abukhali yenani ruble yabezindaba esichazwa njengesono esiphambene kudingekile exchange rate Dynamics, eklanyelwe avuselele umnotho futhi ngikuvimbele ukuze ugweme ukuwela yokujama tsi. Ubani ngempela tye ukusho nzima. Nokho, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi izizathu sangempela ukwehla kwentengo lwemali kazwelonke, ukwesaba labantu wathenga up imali zamadola euro, njengoba abatshalizimali baphuthuma ngokushesha ukulondoloza amafa abo. Naphezu outflow okuqhubekayo dolobha kusukela ezweni, umlamuli wakwazi ekulinganiseni izinga lokushintshisana futhi uyigcine ngaphakathi kwemingcele kubhasikidi lwemali: ekupheleni kukaDisemba 2012 dollar angizisoli ruble 30.3727, i-euro - ruble 40.2286 ..

2013

Kuyo 2013 baqhubeka ukwehla kancane kancane lwemali yethu. Ukubona ukusabela okungekuhle kakhulu umphakathi ukuba okwenzekayo ne-ruble Russian, Central Bank seliphinde yakhetha emikhulu kokuyithenga ukuze silondoloze Yiqiniso. Lezi zinezinhloso ezinhle ziye wachitha cishe u- $ 28 bhiliyoni, kodwa ngesilinganiso lwemali kazwelonke ngokumelene kubhasikidi lwemali ngonyaka yawela cishe 3 ruble.

Ngokusobala, kulo nyaka bekulokhu yimpumelelo kakhulu ruble. Nokho, okuhle kakhulu wabikezela ukuthi ubambe Sochi Olympic kunomthelela kuqiniswa we Yiqiniso, ngokwandisa inflow yevolumu ezengeziwe lwemali kusukela izivakashi ezemidlalo. Ekupheleni konyaka, ngisho abazi elikhethekile izinkinga zezimali abantu Sikhatsateke kakhulu ubuka ukuthi kwenzekani nge pocketbooks yabo. Nokho, 2014, iningi baseRussia wahlangana abanethemba eliletha ukuthula izinga lokushintshisana ngemali yethu, yokuthuthukisa isimo uhlelo yasebhange kanye yokutakula ikusasa emnothweni.

2014

Unyaka uqala senzakalo akusona siyajabulisa kakhulu Russian Rouble: Januwari 15 Central Bank uye kwaphoqa imingcele elintantayo lwemali ephasishi kuze 5 amasenti. Ngo-January izenzo ezinjalo yaphindwa izikhathi 6, futhi ekupheleni kwenyanga kubhasikidi lwemali angizisoli ruble 41.0284 kakade. Ngo-February, lo mkhuba waphikelela, futhi 26.02.2014, inkambo yomlando esiphezulu ibuyekeziwe futhi. Khona-ke izindleko kubhasikidi lwemali ifinyelele embundwini ruble 41,9952. 2 izinyanga kwalo nyaka ekulinganiseni lwemali kazwelonke yasetshenziswa mayelana $ 12 bhiliyoni, okwenza bakwazi ukuba zingeniswe uhlobo zilingana.

Ezemidlalo njengesici esibangela i-kuqiniswa inkambo

Ama-Olympic ngokwengxenye behlisa ukwehla of the ruble. Positive izindaba izikhathi, wehlise izinga ukungezwani phakathi abaseRussia, kanye inflow anda izimali zakwamanye amazwe bavunyelwe isilawuli ngaphandle ukungenelela isikhuthazo esengeziwe sokuqhubekela lokuhwebelana lwemali Russian ezingeni elamukelekile. Futhi ngo-Ephreli, i-ruble ngesibindi Uzame uphinde uthole izikhundla zabo. Ngu nokuqala woSuku Luka-May amaholide ezimbili lwemali kubhasikidi isivele abiza ruble 41.8409. Ngakho, i-4 izinyanga kwalo nyaka ukubaluleka kubhasikidi lwemali kukhuphuke ngo 9.4%.

Ngokwe Isibikezelo Forbes kwesigaba izindaba umhleli Ivan Vasiliev, banikezwe lona ngasekuqaleni kukaJanuwari, 2014 i-ruble ngokumelene kubhasikidi lwemali siwe ngezinkemba ruble mayelana 7.5. (Noma 20%). Nakuba ekulondolozeni ukuzinza ekhona ku pair dollar / euro exchange rate lahlobene zezimali ngeke kuwele efanayo 20%.

Izimo letitsintsa okubakhona

Kwenzekalani Ruble, kwakungeyona ngisho izibikezelo emnyama. Oholela abahlaziyi ukuth ubukeza ukubaluleka kazwelonke lwemali izibalo abazenzayo ekupheleni konyaka odlule. Nokho, kukhona izinto letsintsa ngco izinga lokushintshisana, kodwa hhayi akunika izilinganiso zezinombolo.

ngentuthuko eqhubekayo eningizimu-mpumalanga ye-Ukraine, isimo sengqondo esingaqondile osopolitiki European futhi American isikhundla yamukelwa Russia ngale ndaba, siyangena unswinyo eminingi yokulwa ezweni lethu Kungenzeka. Njengoba umnotho yasekhaya isivele ngokujulile bafakwe emhlabeni, kwakungase kakhulu ukubhodloza ukuzinza Russian uhlelo yasebhange futhi sinciphise izinga lokutholakala kwengculazi lwemali yasekhaya. Kwenzakalani ruble, kuyaqondakala - it is kancane kancane ayashibha. Kuzokwenzekani inkambo kusasa ke ingathathwa ukubikezela cishe akekho.

buka Sasentshonalanga lwemali Russian

The main izinkinga zethu, ngokwengcebo ochwepheshe IMF manje isimo esishubile geopolitical, kungenzeka ethula unswinyo obuqinile labasuka Western zezimali, ukusheshisa emali, imali eshodayo kusabelozimali. It wamemezela ukuthi emnothweni Russian sekungene kancane kancane ku sokuntenga komnotho ezweni sihlalise, futhi izibikezelo seningi ongoti angaphandle ku amathemba lwemali yethu ongenayo injabulo. Ngemva isilinganiso ejensi S & P behliselwe phansi inkosi credit isilinganiso Russia ezingeni BBB-, kwaba sobala ukuthi eminye ukwehla of the ruble akuyona kuphela kungenzeka, kodwa ayinakugwenywa.

Yesikhathi eside projection we guru zezimali Russian

Namuhla, cishe kwakungekho noyedwa izikhulu zezwe lethu abakwazi uchaza ngokucacile ukuba izakhamuzi kwenzekani nge pocketbooks yabo. Izibikezelo lochwepheshe kakhulu izinyanga esilandelayo ambalwa 2014, sehliselwe iqiniso lokuthi ruble uzoqhubeka ukuwa ngendlela yakudala. Eqinisweni, iningi ingxoxo kuphela eyenziwa on ijubane lakhe. Kuyacaca ukuthi ukugcina izinga lokushintshisana phakathi kosuku oluthile olubekiwe isabelomali engu-3 (2014 - 33,40 ruble, ngo-2015 -. Ruble 34,30 futhi ngo-2016 - .. ruble 34.90) musa aphumelele, ngoba ekupheleni kuka-April 2014 dollar angizisoli ruble 35.70. Futhi ngasekuqaleni kuka-March, dollar uye wakwazi ukuthatha bar in ruble 36, kuyilapho euro lashaya okusezingeni eliphezulu mlando ruble angu-50.

Inhloko Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina waqinisekisa 25.04.2014, e isiteshi ingxoxo "Ren-TV" ukuthi Umlawuli Akahlosile afeze kungenela kwezinga elikhulu emakethe lwemali. Yini manje eyenzekayo ne-ruble, Central Bank ubiza ukulungiswa ezidingekayo. Cishe, kwathatha elintantayo exchange rate of the ruble zizokwenziwa hhayi ekuqaleni 2015, njengoba kwathiwa ngaphambili, futhi ehlobo lika-2014.