Abatshalizimali bengasalikholelwa dollar

Ezimakethe forex manje bakha mkhuba empeleni esasisesisha, okusikisela ukuthi ukulingana kwamandla siyashintsha kolunye uhlangothi.

Sikhuluma indlela abasabela ngayo izindaba emakethe mayelana intela yemali izimali US Federal Reserve. Ake ubheka izitatimende wakamuva Fed izikhulu, abaseBhayibhelini abakhuluma ngokuphela ngcono ezithile emakethe yezabasebenzi, ngivuka izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali kanye nokukhula komnotho futhi uzinze.

Ngokwesibonelo, muva nje kuvakashe ummeleli wendlunkulu Rosengren le Fed uthe umnotho wezwe kungawufinyelela emisebentini legcwele ngonyaka ozayo, ngokuqondene lapho kukhona zonke isizathu ukwenyuka kancane intela. Fed Governor Tarullo wathi alikwenqabeli ukuphuza elingaba khona lokuphakamisa izinga zenzalo kulo nyaka. UMongameli we-Federal Reserve Bank Atlanta Dennis Lockhart wathi ukwehla kwamandla emali izinze, kanye nemakethe yabasebenzi kuyeza ukusebenza okugcwele.

Izikhulu eziningi Fed ayavuma ukuthi kudingeka ukwandisa zenzalo, okubangela ukukhanga US dollar kulindeleke ukuthi ukhule, kodwa kwenzekani ngempela? Futhi kukhona isithombe esehlukile kakhulu. Kulezi izitatimende, US dollar uqala kancane kancane ukunqabela ngokumelene ezinye izinhlobo zemali, ikakhulukazi ngokumelene amafa ingozi ezifana euro, i-dollar lase-Australia naseNew Zealand.

On umbuzo kungani lokhu okwenzekayo, iza impendulo eyodwa kuphela: Cishe, abalingiswa abayinhloko nabatshalizimali ubheke izitatimende okunjalo, futhi ngesikhathi ekuqhumeni simo esishubile nokukhula ukuthola isikhundla kuba amafa okuyingozi njengoba dollar US ngempela overbought, nokulindelwe okwengeziwe ukukhula asishayisani nge izinhlelo eziveza ezinkulu izinkampani zezimali kanye uthango izimali.

Enye ethakazelisayo emakethe kukhona ikusasa izivumelwano ku zenzalo. Okusanda, izinguquko ohlangothini negative kwaholela ekutheni izikhulu zibonise ukufunwa nedola laseMelika. Amathuba of the Fed ukukhuliswa zenzalo ngoSepthemba kwaba 15% uma kuqhathaniswa 30% ngasekuqaleni kwale nyanga. Ngesikhathi esifanayo 57% wabahlanganyeli emakethe bakholelwa ukuthi isilinganiso izokwenyuka ngo-December.

Cishe eqinisa ka US dollar ayikho zangokwasemuva zezinhlelo kokuthenga izinto ezinkulu yilabo abatshala izimali zezikhungo, kodwa ukungena abahwebi zokucabangela udidekile futhi ukuqoqa oda njengoba abaningi beyeka, sibonga ngalo kungenzeka esikhathini esizayo ukwakha amazinga ezinkulu ezimile ukwesekwa.

Elinye iphuzu elibalulekile izenzo the ECB sika. Emhlanganweni walo yamuva, ECB President Mario Draghi wenza izinguquko ngokuya Uhlelo ambalwa ubuhlungu, okwabamangaza abahwebi. Makungabikho muntu esikhathini esizayo esiseduze, kodwa isilawuli Usenza izinhlelo kunciphise lolu hlelo, futhi umgomo wezimali baqaphe. Futhi uma lokho kwenzeka, ukufunwa amafa okuyingozi luyokhula nakakhulu.

Ngakho-ke, nokukala imali kwamanje lwezimali sezulu amathemba US dollar ukunyakaza ngeke ngqo kuncike hhayi izenzo Fed, futhi isikhundla nesimo sengqondo zimali omkhulu okulindele ku ingxenye ECB. Ake okwamanje US dollar usenayo amandla athile, futhi zingakhula kancane ngokumelene ezinye izinhlobo zemali, kodwa sibona kakade ukuthi imakethe is kancane kancane kokushintsha maqondana amafa okuyingozi, kodwa lithi akufanele ibe ngokushesha njengoba abaningi bengase bathande ufisa.