Amazinga Key amabhange Russian. Izinga ayisihluthulelo Central Bank of the Russian Federation

Ukukhula komnotho emazweni amaningi emhlabeni kuxhomeke ekutheni ukufunde kahle kangakanani inqubomgomo ye-Central Bank. Omunye amathuluzi main baqashwe emazweni ahlukene Central Bank - ngesilinganiso ukhiye.

Russian Central Bank kwaba okufanayo. Kodwa umkhuba umsebenzi wakhe, + ukuthi yavela naleli gama esanda kutholakala, esikhundleni salo afake iminyaka eminingi, le nkulumo ethi "Izinga refinancing." Izinga ukhiye isibe omunye nabalawuli eyinhloko emnothweni uguqulwe impikiswano phakathi abahlaziyi zezimali emakethe. Kukhona ochwepheshe abakubonayo njengoba ithuluzi, emazweni athuthukile, ikhomba zithwala eyinhloko esimisweni somthetho macroeconomic, okuvumela ukuba sihlele izinto eziza kuqala ekuphatheni umnotho isimo. Ingabe kuyiqiniso lokhu? Ngakho kukhona okukhulu ebekwe indima uchwepheshe we rate ayisihluthulelo Central Bank? Mhlawumbe sibalo ngokuphelele engenamsebenzi esetshenziswa iziphathimandla kuphela ukuze bathethelele izenzo zabo?

Izinga ayisihluthulelo Central Bank - Kuyini?

amazinga Key - lamanani ukuthi izikhungo ezinkulu zezimali (amabhange ikakhulukazi embuso central) emazweni zinqunywa sokubolekwayo (ezifakwa) esikhishwe amabhange yangasese. Banezinhliziyo ubuqiniso ezithile. Leli thuluzi sezimali kwenza nikwazi nethonya eliqondile yokukhuphuka kwamanani ezimpahla, kanye kazwelonke lwemali abathengisa.

Uma, ukwenza isibonelo, ukhiye CBR izinga liyaphuma, khona emva kwalokho, ngokusho kwabanye osomnotho, ukwanda intengo kungenzeka ruble liqhathaniswa ne-dollar kanye euro, ephelezelwa ukwehla kwamandla emali.

Ukwahlukana kusuka izinga refinancing

Ekwindla ka-2013, abahlaziyi abaningi baye baphawula inqubomgomo emisha ye-Central Bank of Russia: izinga refinancing uyekile kuyinkomba eyinhloko isu we isikhungo sezezimali. Central Bank ithole ukuthi inkomba ebaluleke kakhulu emnothweni - okubizwa ngokuthi isilinganiso ukhiye. Ngokusho kwakhe, ibhange central inikeza zezimali esikhathini esingangesonto. Izinga refinancing futhi izinga ukhiye - akufani, kodwa kuqala hhayi Central Bank kukhanselwe ngokuphelele - ke uzoqhubeka usebenzise kuze kufinyelele 2016.

Ngesikhathi inani layo kuyoba ukuvumelanisa nge Inkomba yesibili. Abahlaziyi abathile amabhange bakholelwa ukuthi inqubomgomo ye-Central Bank enjalo kungokwemvelo: samasonto onke repo indali - ethandwa kakhulu ohlelweni wezwe wezimali, nokuthi izinga ukhiye angasiza ekutholeni intengo langempela yemali Ufaka ku izibambiso emakethe. Nakuba izinga refinancing, abahlaziyi wathi, ngokuyinhloko kwakungenxa Indlela.

Taylor umthetho emnothweni Russian

amazinga eziyinhloko umfuziselo olunzulu yizinkomba zezomnotho, abasebenza okuthiwa Taylor umthetho. Lugxile iningi Central Bank kwamanye amazwe, obumba amazinga isithakazelo. Ngo ifomula Taylor, kukhona izinkomba ezintathu eziyisisekelo: kwamandla emali, ukukhula komnotho kanye nokwakheka, njengoba amazinga anjalo. Kulula ngokwanele ukubala inani elikhulu ngamunye wabo, njengokuba nazi ezinye ezimbili. Ngokwesibonelo, ekwindla ka-2013 kwakuyoba ngenani elifanele izinga isihluthulelo 5,6-6,3%, ngesisekelo GDP futhi ezingeni emali eRussia. It kuvela ukuthi abaphathi bebhange Russian abasondela Western amazinga ukuqonda imithetho yezomnotho.

Amanani e-Europe

amazinga Key, njengoba kuphawulwe ngenhla, asetshenziswa izinhlelo kunazo yasebhange emhlabeni, kuhlanganise e-Europe. Inani labo lwamanje ephansi kakhulu kunalokho eRussia - manje the ECB usebenza nge amagugu engaphansi kuka-1%. Regulation ngu-European Central Bank yakhelwe ukwenza ngcono isimo samanje umnotho lokhu ingxenye yezwe. The ECB ihlose ukuthatha izinqumo usizo credit nezinye izikhungo zezimali e-Europe kanye EU ngokukhethekile.

Ochwepheshe uqaphele ukuthi kwezinye izimo kungase kube ukwamukelwa negative rates - kungaba nethonya elihle ku-obolekisayo. Amabhange, ababenelungelo lokungena ukubolekisa ezishibhile, bakwazi, esikhundleni salokho, lula kokuthola imali kazwelonke ababoleka - abantu nezinhlangano ukuthi ekugcineni ukusiza ukunciphisa okubangelwa ukusweleka komsebenzi kanye ukugqugquzela ukukhula komnotho. Phakathi la imiphumela emibi ukwethulwa isithakazelo negative amazinga kuqashelwe lokhu okulandelayo: kukhona ithuba lokuthi izinga wangempela ukubuya imali ebhange kungase yezakhamuzi zingancishiswa.

Izinga ukhiye eRussia

Ukhiye CBR isilinganiso, kanye eYurophu - omunye amathuluzi kwethonya emnothweni kazwelonke. yasebhange umkhuba zokulawula eRussia uyazi lapho inani layo senyuselwa kwetshumi eziningana iphuzu. Ngokwesibonelo, ekupheleni kuka-Ephreli 2014 weBhodi Labaqondisi of Central Bank yanquma ukwandisa ukhiye senzalo kusuka 7% ku-7.5%. Lesi sinyathelo ibhange central wachaza ukuthi lokho okulindelwe esishintshile kwamandla emali. Uma ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ngaphambi isisulu saso bezingaphezulu azungeze 5% ekupheleni kuka-2014, ukuthi ngesikhathi ukulungisa izinga ayisihluthulelo Central Bank okulindele babé kancane engenathemba ngaphezulu.

Ingabe Zikhona Izimo Ezenza ukushintsha izibikezelo, ibhange central ngokuthi ezimbalwa: Dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, kanye kwezimo ezingezinhle enkundleni angaphandle kwabanye amaqembu umkhiqizo. Abahlaziyi aveze ukuthi ibhange emaphakathi abaqhuba okuthiwa refinance concessional lapho ukubolekisa kukhona credit nezinye izikhungo zezimali ngesilinganiso ngaphansana ukhiye senzalo we CBR.

Izimpikiswano ukwehlisa izinga ukhiye

Imibono phakathi wochwepheshe mayelana nenqubomgomo Russian Central Bank mayelana amazinga ukhiye zihlukaniswe. Kukhona abasekeli mqondo ngesidingo ukwehlisa inani lale ithuluzi zokulawula. agumenti ngokuyinhloko kusekelwe iqiniso lokuthi Ukwehla e izingozi komnotho wezwe ziphakeme kakhulu kunalezo elihlobene ne kwamanani ezimpahla. Ngakho-ke, lapho Bank of ukhiye izinga liyaphuma eRussia, ingase ibe nomthelela omubi Dynamics GDP. Ngaphezu kwalokho, lowo myalo ngo-ukunciphisa ukubaluleka kwalo, le izazi zikholelwa izimo abalulekile. Okokuqala, abahlaziyi bathi, futhi uma izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali njengoba ingaphezulu kuka amagugu kulindeleke, akusiyo kakhulu - ke kungalindeleka ukuthi ekupheleni konyaka kuyoba azisizi 6-6.5%. Lokhu zomlando ingevamile umnotho izibalo Russian. Abanye abadlali ukunikeza kwezepolitiki kuyiwe ukuxhumana phakathi kukahulumeni kanye Central Bank ngokuphelele: ngokusebenzisa uhlobo olukhethekile izikweletu. Muva nje, lo msebenzi uye usuthunyelwe Duma futhi ngokusho kwaso ukubeka phambili imfundo Central Bank: izinga ukhiye ayikwazi ukusethwa ephakeme kuka-1%. Ngokusho initiators Bill, amagugu lamanje ungavumeli izinhlangano ukuthatha ukubolekisa etholakalayo, njengoba kunjalo emazweni amaningi athuthukile.

I-agumenti lokukhulisa izinga ukhiye

Kukhona abameleli bomphakathi uchwepheshe iphuzu okuphambene umbono - bakholelwa ukuthi isihluthulelo lenzalo kumele lenyuke. Ngokombono wabo, ungalindeli nethonya elihle ukutholakala credit njengoba amaphesenti aphansi uma empeleni kufinyeleleke izinkampani ezinkulu kuphela. amabhizinisi amancane naphakathi nendawo kungenzeka kakhulu ancike ukubaluleka 6-8%. Leso simo, ochwepheshe bathi, ngenxa izingozi ukuthi ukuhlela abancane. Ngaphezu kwalokho, abahlaziyi ukucindezeleka, yesilinganiso ayisihluthulelo Central Bank - kuyinto ithuluzi kwethonya ukuwa kwamandla emali, ukwehla kwamanani yayo kungasho ngibashiye ingalawuleki.

Izibikezelo ku izinga ayisihluthulelo Central Bank of the Russian Federation

osomnotho abaningi abacabanga ukuthi Bank of Russia isazoqhubeka yehlisa izinga ukhiye. Kungenzeka ukuthi lo mkhuba kuyoba obonakalayo engxenyeni 2014 yesibili - ngaphandle-ke, umnotho aliveli izinkinga okungazelelwe. Iziphathimandla alindele ukuthi ukukhuphuka kwamanani ezimpahla ngeke ijubane ijubane (futhi lokhu isici - omunye lomcoka ohlelweni lokunquma amagugu Central Bank izinga ukhiye), i-ruble uhlaliseke, ukufunwa ezifakwa lwemali kazwelonke kuyokhula. Futhi, okubaluleke, kulindelekile isivuno esihle okusanhlamvu.

Ngakho-ke, izazi zikholelwa inqubomgomo samanje Central Bank yingenxa ilukhuni ngaphezu kwezintambo umgomo kudingwa emakethe. Abanye abahlaziyi bakholelwa ukuthi izitatimende Central Bank ukuthi izinga kumele lenyuke, kungase kube nje ngomzamo ukunqanda izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali amahemuhemu. Nokho, empeleni, Central Bank kungekho isizathu sokulindela amanani ukwenyuka, kodwa kunalokho, bayoba izilungiso phansi. Ngokuqondene nalokhu, abantu abanethemba lokuhle ukholelwa ukuthi ochwepheshe, izinga ukhiye ngo-2014 ngeke ibhekane iyehla iyenyuka abalulekile phezulu: kungenzeka ukuthi Bank of Russia ungathanda ukunciphisa ke okuningi.

Isici zezombusazwe

Abanye abahlaziyi kwamabhange aveze ukuthi izenzo Central Bank bangathonya ubudlelwane isici phakathi eRussia nakwamanye amazwe. Endabeni isimo okungekuhle enkundleni inqubomgomo angaphandle singanciphisa ruble, futhi izihloko izosuswa kusukela lizwe. Izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali kuyokhula. Kodwa uma ku kwamaZwe izohlala okuzinzile (njengesimo sokunquma eyinhloko okuyinto non-ukuphazamiseka ezindabeni Russia e-Ukraine), sinazo zonke izizathu ukulindela nokugcina izinga ayisihluthulelo Central Bank ngo-anamuhla.

Abahlaziyi bathi kufanele abe nesandla sibe Ngokombono wabo, Ukwehla bendabuko e izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali phakathi nezinyanga zasehlobo. Balindele ukuthi Central Bank, ebona ukuthi amanani ayibi, ngeke enze noma yimuphi ukunyakaza okungazelelwe elawula izinga ukhiye. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ababesekela lo mbono baveza ukuthi ibhange elikhulu nohlobo kusadingeka wehlise izinga kuze ezingeni 5.5%. Siqala esikhathini eside.