Kungani kuwa amafutha? Intengo yamafutha iwa: izimbangela, imiphumela

Kungani amafutha ewa ngamanani? Lolu daba lukhathazeka kakhulu ochwepheshe abaningi, ngoba izindleko zokushiswa kwamanani emakethe yamazwe ngamazwe zishiya impumelelo emnothweni wamazwe amaningi emhlabeni, ikakhulukazi isiRussia. Kusukela ngoSeptemba 2014 kuze kube ngu-Mashi 2015, kwaba khona ukwehla okusebenzayo kuphethiloli. Ngemva kokunciphisa kancane intengo iphinde yehla. Uma sicabangela lesi simo ngombono we-theory, khona-ke imithombo yemvelo, ebizwa ngokuthi iphelele, kufanele ikhuphuke unyaka nonyaka. Kodwa ngenxa yezimangalo ezithile zezimo, inani lentengo yamafutha emakethe yokushintshanisa lavela ngaphansi kwethonya kwezombusazwe.

Isimo samanje

Ukuqonda ukuthi kungani amafutha ewa, ukuhlolwa okuningiliziwe kwesimo emakethe kuzosiza. NgoJuni 2014, akukho lutho olufanekisela le nhlekelele, kanti intengo yombhoshongo we "igolide elimnyama" yafinyelela uphawu lwamadola ayi-115. Abaningi abahlaziyi beqiniseka ukuthi ekupheleni kuka-2014 intengo yayizovala u-$ 110. Ngisho nabahlaziyi bombuso abazange bakungabaze lokhu kuthuthukiswa kwezehlakalo, ngoba izindleko zephethiloli imali engu-$ 100 zafakwa kwisabelomali saseRussia.

Ngokumelene nezibikezelo ezinyangeni ezingu-6 ezilandelayo, bonke ababambiqhaza bezimakethe bakwazi ukugcina ukwehla okukhulu kwamafutha. Amashadi afinyelela eminyakeni emibili ephansi futhi athuthele ngokuqiniseka ezenzakalweni zango-2008. Ubuncane bufinyelelwe ngoFebhuwari cishe nge $ 47.09. Naphezu kokuthi amazwe e-OPEC aziqhenya ngokumemezela ukuthi abesabi ukwehliswa kwephethiloli kuze kufike ku-$ 10 ngomgqomo ngamunye, ngaphansi komaki oshiwo, imakethe yayingavunyelwe ukuthutha. Ngakho-ke, kusukela ngoFebruwari 2015, ukukhula okuphambene kwezinto zokusetshenziswa kwaqala. Namuhla, izindleko zomgqomo wamafutha ngu-$ 63.69.

Ukubikezela, izibikezelo

Ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule, ubuholi bamazwe amaningi bunamathele ekhanda, beziphazamisa ngokwabo ngokuthi kungani izindleko zamafutha ziwela. Lesi simo asizange sithembise okuhle, ngoba izingcaphuno zaziqhamuka ngaphandle kokuyeka. Ochwepheshe, ukuqonda isimo, bahlale bephikelela ukuthi akukho lutho olubi olwenzekayo.

Ebusika ka-2015 kwakukhona izinkulumo ezaqala ukuqinisa isimo ekuqaleni kwehlobo. Ukuwa kwamaphesenti angu-40% ngonyaka akufani nokudonsa emhlabeni wonke ka-75% ngesikhathi senkinga ngo-2008.

Umhlangano we-OPEC ekuqaleni kwentwasahlobo wanikeza impendulo eyingxenye yombuzo wokuthi kungani amafutha ewa. Kuyinto elula: isipho siphumelele isidingo. Naphezu kokuthi isimo akufanele sishintshe kuze kufike umhlangano olandelayo wezifundazwe, okuhleliwe ngoJuni 2015, abahlanganyeli bezimakethe zomhlaba bangabona ukuthi inani le-fuelback liyi-20%. Kungashiwo ukuthi ukucindezelwa kwamafutha avela ezintweni zezombangazwe kuye kwehla kancane, kanti ukubikezela kokunyuka kwezindleko zomgqomo kuya ku-$ 65 ngasekupheleni kuka-2015 kungabizwa ngempela ngempela.

Yini eyenza ukuwa kwezimakethe zamafutha?

Ochwepheshe bezimakethe zamazwe omhlaba, ukuhlaziya umbuzo wokuthi kungani amafutha ewa, wafinyelela esiphethweni sokuthi izici eziningana zithonya isimo. Ngenxa yokugcotshwa kuka-2014, izenzakalo zezwe zezombangazwe nezomnotho, kuyinkinga ekubambeni okukodwa okumele kwenziwe ukunciphisa izingcaphuno. Ungakwazi ukukhuluma ngokuqala kokuguquka kwe-slate endaweni yaseMelika. Kusukela ngo-2008, ukukhiqizwa kwamafutha kahulumeni kuye kwanda ngamabhayoni ayizigidi ezingu-4 ngosuku. Kufanelekile ukusho ukuthi kancane kancane iU.SA yayingumthengi omkhulu "wegolide elimnyama".

Ukushintsha kwenqubomgomo yezwe akubanga nje kuphela ukwandisa kwamanani emfucumfucu emakethe, kodwa nakwehliswa okukhulu ekufuneni kwalo. Ungakwazi ukukhuluma ngezigwegwe ezivela e-EU, ezibekwa eRussia. Akuyona indima encane ekubunjweni kwesimo esadlalwa ngokubuyela emakethe yamafutha eLibya nase-Iran.

Ukuwa kwamafutha: isimangalo noma inqubomgomo enengqondo?

Ngisho ekupheleni konyaka wobusika ka-2015 kwakungenakwenzeka ukuphikisa iqiniso lokuthi izindleko zamafutha ziyawa. Izizathu zalolu buchwepheshe ochwepheshe zitholakala ezicini ezihlukahlukene zokuthuthukiswa komphakathi wezwe. Ithiyori ethandwa kakhulu, ngokusho ukuthi ukwehla kwezingcaphuno kungumzamo we-Saudi Arabia ukushayela i-US emakethe. Izwe, ekubeni ngumholi wembonini, likwazi ukwenza ithonya elikhulu emakethe. Engafuni ukulahlekelwa amakhasimende ayo, ekhetha ukugcina ubuholi, i-Saudi Arabia yanciphisa izintengo ezingeni lezindleko zokukhiqiza uphethiloli eMelika, okuhambisana nokuvalwa kwezinkampani eziningana e-US. Ngokuyinhloko, i-Venezuela ayizange isekele umlingani wayo futhi ingathanda ukunciphisa inani lokukhiqiza ukunciphisa izindleko.

Ukuhlaziywa kobuchwepheshe bezingcaphuno kusho ukuthini?

Uma sicabangela ukuguquguquka kwesimiso, umbuzo othi kungani ukuwa kwamafutha kuqhutshwa ngemuva. Ochwepheshe banesithakazelo lapho ukunyakaza kuzohamba khona.

Ngisho nasekupheleni konyaka wobusika ka-2015, abacwaningi babeqondiswa izinga lokusekela elinamandla, elise $ 36 (intengo ka-2008). Kwavela kuye ukuthi ukuthengwa kuhlelwe. Kwakulindelwe ukuthi kungabi nje ukuthinta, kodwa ukuhlolwa okuhle kufikele ku-dollar engu-30 kuya ku-33, okwakubangelwa ukwesaba okungenzeka. Kodwa isimo sasidlala kancane kancane. Intengo yafika ezingeni lika-$ 47, yaphenduka futhi yakhuphuka. Okwamanje, kukhona amandla okukhula okuhle. Izibikezelo ezinhle kakhulu zikhomba ukuthi ekupheleni kuka-2015 intengo izovala ngo-$ 85 ngomgqomo, noma ngaphezulu. Ngingathanda ukusho ukuthi ama-ejenti amakhulu okuhlaziya kanye namabhange omhlaba, naphezu kwesimo esiphuthumayo, kulindeleke ukuthi omunye uhambo oluhamba phambili luye phansi kokukhula kwezimiso ezibikezelwe.

Ifomethi entsha yezimakethe zempahla

Uma nje eminyakeni embalwa eyedlule impendulo yombuzo wokuthi kungani amafutha ewa yanikezwa kalula, namuhla ngisho nezibikezelo zesikhathi esifushane azikho kahle. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi izimpahla zangempela zaphenduka "izimpahla" zezimpahla. Ukuhweba okusebenzayo ezinkontileka kanye nekusasa kuqhutshwa. Ivolumu yempahla yezinto zokusetshenziswa kuphela 5% kuphela. Uma sicabangela isimo emhlabeni ngezimali ezibuthakathaka zamazwe amaningi futhi nezinkinga zaseRussia, okuyinto enikezela kakhulu umthengisi wephethiloli, ukuwa kwezindleko kungachazwa.

Izinto eziwusizo umnotho weRussia Federation: ukuzwela ukuguqulwa kwamanani emakethe yamazwe omhlaba wokusetshenziswa kwempahla

Kusukela ngo-1999, umnotho waseRussia uthuthuka. Kusukela ngo-2003, umbuso uphelela ukuchuma kwawo ekukhuleni kwamanani omhlaba wezithuthi zamandla. Izimo ezithandekayo zasiza ukubuyisela izikweletu zangaphandle futhi zakha isikhwama sokuzinza. Izinkinga eziningi zenhlalo ziye zangena ekugqibeleni. Esikhathini esedlule, inzuzo, futhi namuhla ukwehluleka - ukuthembela ngokuqondile kwezwe ezintweni ezibonakalayo nokungakwazi ukugcwalisa isabelomali kusuka kwezinye izinhlaka zomnotho.

Ngo-2014, isabelomali sakhiwe ngenxa yokwanda kwenzuzo ngokuthengiswa kwemithombo yamandla ngamabulle ayizinkulungwane eziyi-1. Ngaphandle kokunakwa, kwaba khona ukwehla kwemali evela eminye imithombo ngamabhulekhi ayizigidi ezingu-300. Lokhu kuchaza ukukhathazeka kukahulumeni okubangelwa umbuzo onjalo: "Kungani ukuwa kwamafutha, idoli likhula?".

Ubani ohluphekile ngenxa yokuhla kwehla kwamanani?

Ukunciphisa okukhulu kwezindleko zamafutha emakethe yomhlaba kubangele ukuhlukumezeka emnothweni wezinhlobo zempahla. I-Russia isibe isibonelo esihle kakhulu sokuthinta ngqo isimo esimakethe yempahla emnothweni. Lapho uphethiloli uhamba ngokuzethemba, futhi ochwepheshe babehlola umbuzo wokuthi kungani isidingo samafutha sishaya, izwe lingabona ukukhula kwezimali zemali yangaphandle, inkinga ebangeni lebhange kanye nokuwohloka okubukhali emiphakathini yokuphila yabantu. Kumele kuthiwa ngengozi enkulu yokuhlaziywa kwe-ruble. Namuhla, uhulumeni uzizwa eqiniseka ngokwengeziwe ngentengo yamafutha, kepha kuze kube yilapho imodeli ebonakalayo yomnotho ithunyelwa esikhathini esedlule, kusheshe kakhulu ukukhuluma mayelana nokuthuthukiswa okuhle kwemicimbi.