Lapho dollar uwa? Kanjani ukuba sihlaziye isimo emakethe lwemali futhi baqonde: dollar ziyokuwa noma bavuke?

US dollar ngokumelene ruble ingahlalisekanga kakhulu eminyakeni yamuva nje ngemva 2008-2009 crisis. US lwemali uwile e intengo kakhulu. Ngo 2013 futhi ekuqaleni kuka-2014 - ke zase zikhulile futhi. ochwepheshe Market akholelwa ukuthi isimo, kanye impendulo yombuzo ophathelene nokuthi dollar ziyokuwa, kuthonywa uhla izici, kokubili kwezomnotho nakwezombusazwe.

Intengo kawoyela

Ngokusho ekubukeni okukodwa, dollar ngokumelene ruble ngo-2014, ngeke ifane kakhulu. Ukwanda kokutheleleka kudlange kakhulu lwemali US kungase kuhambisane ukunciphisa kancane kancane izikhundla imali yamaphepha Russian. I-ruble, ngokusho kongoti, incike amanani kawoyela. Ayanda kuba, dollar buthaka. Uma intengo kawoyela uwela, uhulumeni waseRussia has isinxephezeliso a drawdown kwesabelomali, ngabe ukumehlisa Ruble, asize nokukhishwa "igolide abamnyama" manje.

Kodwa, idatha kwezomnotho omuhle ukuza evela e-US-EU ngayo kancane kancane ephuma ukuntengantenga eside, bathi amanani kawoyela izohlala ezingeni eliphezulu (azungeze $ 100 umphongolo). I-ruble kanjalo kwagcizelela iminotho ukumelana Western. Ngo-2014, lapho amanani kawoyela ngokucijile ukuthatha inkambo buyaphela, lwemali Russian ngemva kwalokhu isihlobo ushibhile US. Uma kunalokho - kuzobalwa kuphela ulinde kuze kube yilapho dollar uyowa.

Rouble - ngingabi buthakathaka

Kukhona umbono ukuthi ruble Russian, sisonke, akuyona lwemali ababuthakathaka. Kulinganiselwa we abasekeli yalesi mqondo, kazwelonke yasebhange inothi uye waqinisa ezweni lwethu eyi 10 eyedlule ngama-60% ngokwezibalo zangempela. Uma, ukwenza isibonelo, izakhamuzi yonke le minyaka, igcinwe ukonga ruble, kusobala iwine. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, njenganoma ekuqiniseni uhlelo lwemali Russian, osomnotho abakholelwa, manje noma ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, kuyothiwa ontengo yakhe yayinqunyiwe e. Naphezu yenqwaba fuel nokuthengiswa, lo inflow net imali (ngesimo inkokhelo, izinguqulo) iphansi. Umnotho isiRashiya, ngaleyo ndlela, ungathola kusukela le nkinga, futhi Rouble, ngenxa yalokho, i-dollar uzobuya "umusa" yesikhathi esidlule.

Noma kunjalo, "lokhuni"

Abanye ochwepheshe bakholelwa ukuthi ruble - lwemali, ngokumelene okuyinto kunzima ukuba babe nethemba: ukuthi baziphathe kanjani dollar ziyokuwa noma bavuke Russian yasebhange inothi - ukubikezela nzima. Engingakusho nje kokukhumbula 90s, lapho ruble kungenzeka okwamanje esibi ningabi ukuma 'lwephepha' e yini. izinto eziningi kakhulu ngokwesiko ithonya Russian exchange rate: kuba intengo kawoyela, inqubomgomo Central Bank maqondana uhlelo yasebhange, a ukuziphatha CB yangasese.

Izibikezelo for 2014 Unyaka alikwenqabeli ukuphuza ukuthi ruble is devalued - ngokuyinhloko ngenxa Russia wangena WTO, ukuze wabelane sokungena ongama, futhi production ezifuywayo - encishisiwe. Kukhona izibalo: ekupheleni 2013 euro safinyelela ruble 45, kuyilapho omunye ngo-2012, isilinganiso esifanayo njengento engenakwenzeka. Ngakho-ke ngeke sikwazi siqambe okwandisa izinga kumayunithi 50 lwemali Russian-European olulodwa. Ngakwelinye ihlangothi, emnothweni US eminyakeni yamuva, kukhona izimpawu njengoba sinjalo, futhi ochwepheshe maqondana dollar banethemba ngaphezulu.

Kwenza akukho mqondo ukuqagela

Naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi ochwepheshe emakethe ahlale engenathemba mayelana ruble, akekho ngempela akusho ukweluleka ukutshala lwemali US njengoba oluthile ukonga. Kukhona inguqulo ukuthi labantu eyayenziwe okwesabisa amaphepha abamenyiwe zezomnotho, kanye Ukushisa amahlebezi ahlukahlukene nokuhleba ngenjongo eyodwa - ukuze kuvuswe ukuthenga izakhamuzi Russian ngangokunokwenzeka umthamo enkulu US lwemali. Lezi "amakhosi" banknotes - hhayi befisa ukuthola inzuzo, namabhange central. Kuyinto ba abanquma lapho dollar ukuwa kanye uma ekhula.

Kukhona yini iphuzu elithakazelisayo umbono: Uma abaseRussia uzokwazi zinethonya ngandlela-thile Central wethu Bank, okuyinto usasebenza, kunalokho, ukugcina izithakazelo oligarchs, hhayi abantu, "Izinambuzane" ingehla ruble 30 ekupheleni 2014. Futhi, ezinye izazi zigcizelela - ngisho noma kukhona ukuwohloka elibukhali kwezimo zomnotho, kulahlwe umbuso ube Reserve Isikhwama, lapho "isitokwe" ruble mayelana 5 trillion. Yilokho awanele ukuhlawulela izono ibhajethi kusilela esikhulu kakhulu.

sokulindela

Ngokusho okwashiwo eziningi ochwepheshe ngokuhamba lwemali ukuhweba ngenyanga edlule waphawula izigaba, lapho Central Bank of Russia akusho ukuqhuba kokungenela exchange angaphandle. Inkambo we imali yamaphepha kazwelonke, ngaleyo ndlela, yawela okuthiwa "ephasishi kokungathathi hlangothi" lapho Central Bank akunandaba: dollar bayovuka noma iwe. "Elithi bi-lwemali kubhasikidi" izindleko okwamanje ingeqi ukubaluleka esibucayi Central Bank of ukubaluleka ruble 41. Kunezici lokubalulekile zokucabangela ukuziphatha obengeziwe lwemali Russian ngokumelene dollar kanye euro.

Ngokuphathelene lokuqala - kukhona nokwanda okuphawulekayo ukuhweba ibhalansi yeRussia. Lokhu kungenxa yokungabikho isimo ngcono wezimali ka-euro indawo amazwe, okuyizinto abalingani main komnotho wezwe lakithi. The ECB iqagula ukuthi GDP esifundeni ingase ikhule ngo 1.1% ekupheleni 2014. Ngenxa yalokho, kungase kubangele ukwanda ukufunwa fuel nomnotho Russia, kanye ukwanda amanani abo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, buthakathaka ruble liqhathaniswa ne-dollar kanye euro, owenzeka ngo-2014, eqinisweni, ngcono ibhalansi ukuhweba we sibonga yezwe esebenzayo yokungenisa esikhundleni. Ngakho-ke akuyona yokuthi ibhizinisi Russian is ehleli elinde, lapho dollar uwela.

Izinombolo kusukela State

Russian Ministry of Economic Development ubikezela ukuthi ruble (ngokwezibalo zangempela ngempumelelo) ngo-2014 kuyoncipha ngu 7.4% (ngenkathi esikhathini esithile esidlule ukunciphisa ukubala inani lase 1.5%). Lesi sibalo kwamenyezelwa ezingeni eliphakeme kunawo ezikhonzayo. Ngo-2015, lwemali Russian kungaba njengoba koMnotho ukholelwa beqiniswe 0.2% ngo-2016 - 1.1%, futhi kancane ngaphezulu 2017 - 0.1%. I-ruble liqhathaniswa ne-dollar ngo-2014, ngokwemibiko ye-ejensi, e-avareji yonyaka kwaba amayunithi 36.3 (kuqhathaniswa 33,9 kwi ekubalweni odlule). Ngo-2015, i-"buck", kulindeleke ukuba abiza 38,8 imali yamaphepha isiRashiya, ngo-2016 cishe okufanayo - 38,7, e-2017, futhi, ngaphandle izinguquko - 38.5.

Ministry of Economic Development futhi ukholelwa ukuthi intengo isilinganiso ka emgqonyeni ongahluziwe uwoyela Urals izikebhe kuzokhulisa ukuba 104 zamadola, futhi 2015-2016. uwela amayunithi 100 lwemali US. Ngo-2017, i- "igolide black", ngokuvumelana ejensi wabikezela ukuna intengo kuze kufinyelele 98 zamaRandi umphongolo. Isimo Kungenzeka ukuthi uyazibuza lapho dollar ziyowa intengo.

Izibalo zango-abahlaziyi

Ngokwe umhlahlo samanje ebhange utshalomali UBS, emnothweni Russian ngo-2014 ngeke ukhule ngamaphesenti% 1.5 kuphela (kuyilapho izibalo odlule efakiwe sibalo 2.5%), ngo-2015 - 2% (ngaphambili kulindeleke 2 , 8%). Ngenxa revaluation yombono isimo sezimali ezweni lethu, abahlaziyi alindele ukuthi isikhungo credit, ukuthi "uhlobo lwemali ezimbili" ubhasikidi, okwakubekelwa okukhulunywe ngaye ngenhla, kwakungaba into efanele 44,2 ruble ekupheleni 2014 (ngaphambili ayebizwa ngokuthi sibalo 40,7 Russian lwemali amayunithi).

Ngokuphathelene nobuhlobo positional dollar kanye euro, ekupheleni kuka-2014, UBS abahlaziyi alindele ukuthi 1 iyunithi lwemali American izobiza 1.25 imali yamaphepha European. Lokhu cishe ngokuvumelana okulindele ku ruble (37.6 dollar ngalinye ngoZibandlela 2014). Ngo-2015 i-euro ngokumelene kholwa UBS «buck", bawe intengo ezingeni 1.20. abahlaziyi Ibhange sika alindele ukuthi ibhange elikhulu nohlobo Russian ngeke azifake ezindabeni lwemali ukuhweba, kodwa cha vakaza ukuthi inqubomgomo malini Central Bank iyoba obuqinile. Kodwa ngo izibikezelo cishe akukho iziphakamiso indawo on ukuthuthukisa umnotho wethu lapho dollar uwela.

isici Ukrainian

ochwepheshe Russian cha bambalala isimo e-Ukraine futhi US dollar maqondana ukuziphatha lwemali kazwelonke ka ezweni elingumakhelwane - lwemali kazwelonke. I-International Monetary Fund ubona ngesilinganiso elilingene ngokwezimboni amayunithi 10.5-11 we amanothi yasebhange "buck". Kukhona simo engenathemba lapho dollar ongasukuma ukuze 12-13 hryvnia. Esinye sezizathu - ukwanda igesi izintengo Ukraine, eziya ziba zimbi ukuhweba ngokubambisana ne eRussia, okuyinto babekwazi kubangele ibhalansi wezwe lezinkokhelo kusilela futhi iholele ukwehla we-hryvnia. isici esibalulekile tinchubomgomo IMF.

Uma isikhwama uyonika Ukraine loan, lwemali kazwelonke liqhathaniswa ne-dollar wezwe kungaqinisa. Tranche kusukela IMF uyakwazi kube uphawu omuhle zimali abavela kwamanye amazwe kanye osomabhizinisi. nezinye izinkomba Omunye omuhle - isimo sengqondo abaholi Russia nase-United States nomthelela isinqumo isimo kuleli zwe ngomzila zamanxusa. Kodwa umdlalo zezombusazwe - inqubo liyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu yokwazi ukuthi dollar ziyokuwa e-Ukraine.

Isibikezelo sezulu sezinsuku baqaphe

Ochwepheshe ukuthi ukuqonda indlela dollar ngeke ziphatheni esekelwe "Yebo esizayo", kulula - sibonga yokuthi Central Bank of Russia ishicilela izinga lokushintshisana kosuku njengenhlangano esemthethweni ngoba kusasa. Kunzima ukwenza izibikezelo eside bese usho okuningi ngokuqinisekile lapho dollar noma euro ziyokuwa, abakwazi. US dollar exchange rate maqondana Russia sixhomeke kakhulu amaqembu amabili yezici. Okokuqala, kubalulekile, njengoba enjalo, amandla ruble. It kuncike isimo emnothweni Russian futhi izinqubo zezepolitiki. Okwesibili - dollar ngokumelene ezinye izinhlobo zemali zomhlaba (ikakhulukazi euro), ukucabangela amagugu zazo zilula. Ngakho-ke, abahlaziyi belulekwa abadlali emakethe ithemba kakhulu izibikezelo eside mayelana ukuziphatha imali yamaphepha American.