Sinjani isimo embonini kawoyela Russian? Namaqiniso kanye Amathemba

Amafutha uhlanga uyaqhubeka, futhi lapho ngamunye ababambiqhaza isinyathelo ngesisekelo nezinzuzo zazo siqu. Umzamo unamahloni ukufeza uhambisane ukunikezela izingqinamba, umkhankaso e Doha, kuhlulekile, ikakhulukazi ngenxa renunciation Saudi Arabia, esikhundleni salokho, okuyinto eyenzeka yayisesimweni esingenathemba. Intengo kawoyela kancane okwandisa, kanjalo ngokugcwalisa kwesabelomali Russian Federation, kakade walungisa izinkinga ezinkulu ngokuvumelana umhlahlo engenathemba kakhulu. Yini okumele uyilindele esilandelayo? Namuhla azizwa embonini yezimayini, esesikhundleni ukubaluleka lwamasu emnothweni kazwelonke? Lokhu kungenziwa yahlulelwe kuphela iziphetho ochwepheshe abafanelekayo - abaningi idatha ngenxa yezizathu ezisobala hhayi wachazela.

Isimo Melika

US umkhakha umkhiqizo kawoyela e ngamanani aphansi ahlangabezana nobunzima sina. Yenqaba kwamanani jikelele kwaholela ukwehla inzuzo yonke imiphumela yazo zonke imithetho yezomnotho. abadobi American ngokwabo ziye zaveza ngokwabo ogibeni, ukudala ukunqwabelana eyinhlekelele. Nokho, ngezinye izindleko $ 46 emgqonyeni cishe kuba 'wanqunywa' kusukela uwoyela oluthambile emakethe ye-indastri, ubuchwepheshe isiba ezingenanzuzo, libuye libe inzuzo ezinye ukuvuselelwa okwami kuthatha isikhathi esingaphansi indlela classical. umkhiqizo kawoyela e-US bafinyelela inani irekhodi e Juni 2015, khona-ke ngosuku kusukela amathumbu zobhejane Barrel abayizigidi ezingu 9.6.. Manje, lesi sibalo bawela kwezigidi ezingu-8.8. Futhi liqhubeka lincipha. Imboni ahlangabezana nobunzima enkulu e obuyisela loans kuthathwe esekelwe tinzuzo letisetulu, ezingenakho namuhla.

Isimo e-OPEC

Cartel ekuhlanganiseni amazwe oil-producing-Middle East, lapho besanda samanje wabonisa ukusebenza kahle yayo ongaphakeme. Ngamanye amazwi, ukuthi kuyini, ukuthi akusiyo - akukho mahluko. The main ukushayela force, kuhlelembisa esitimela, Saudi Arabia, luziphatha sengathi akukho OPEC alikho, kodwa esiyinhloko isikhubekiso kwaba isikhundla Iran ukuze kuqhutshekwe ukwandisa umkhiqizo. Kuyacaca, izwe, naterpevshis kusukela unswinyo isikhathi eside, ufuna isinxephezeliso inzuzo elahlekile sekungamashumi amaningi eminyaka, ngaphezu, njengoba izingcaphuno zakamuva ngisho amanani okwengeziwe akufanele kube nomthelela kakhulu emakethe.

Saudi ulahla kakhulu inquma mkhuba, sivimbela ukukhula kwama- amanani, okuyinto kuze kube manje namanje unganelisekile El-Riyadh, okuyilona elidingekayo ukuze Ayethi okungenani eziyikhulu, noma sabelomali asikwazi encishisiwe. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ukuzimisela limenyezelwe ukwandisa ukukhiqizwa ngenkathi futhi kwakufanele nomthelela cha. Tehran ngo-Ephreli wehlela phezu dosanktsionny izimpahla. On wonke, alondoloza Ukungadli esivuna isiphakamiso emakethe emhlabeni, kodwa sona kancane kancane angabekwa. Demand ukhula, futhi bafinyelela esiphezulu seminyaka emihlanu, okuyilona elisebenzayo futhi ngaphansi emakethe ekhona ejwayelekile, umthombo ezishibhile edliwe ngokushesha kunokuba komgwaqo, futhi izenzo ukuzithiba indlela, futhi intengo kancane kancane kwandisa.

Russian "Greenfield"

Okwamanje, ngenxa zokukhiqiza amafutha esebenzayo e-United States futhi OPEC Supply kukhuphuke ngo. Barrel kwezigidi ezingu 1.25, kodwa ekupheleni 2017, Ukungadli kulindeleke ukuba enqabe Barrel kwezigidi ezingu 0.14.. Kule ndaba, isikhundla waseRussia Kuyathakazelisa. Ngokusho VYGON Consulting ochwepheshe, umkhiqizo kawoyela ezifuywayo likhula ngokushesha, futhi phakathi nonyaka ozayo ivolumu ungafika kwezigidi ezingu 565. Barrel ngelanga, okuhambelana irekhodi ngisho amaSoviet ngo-1987. Okuthathelwa kukho, khona kulo nyaka wezimali, bangamaphesenti kwezigidi ezingu 545 Imithombo main ukunikezela of izinto zokusetshenziswa waqala ukuthola okuthiwa Greenfields (Greenfields), okungukuthi, amasimu osanda kugunyazwa .. Lokhu kungenxa izinzuzo yentela enikeziwe ngumbuso lapho besanda kuqala izinto zokukhiqiza kuphela. I isabelo "amasimu aluhlaza" kuyinto wesithathu ingqikithi. Endabeni ukufinyelela isivumelwano e-Doha, lezi ezifakwa akakwazanga okwamanje wasungula. Khona manje tiniketwe ngu imiklamo emisha nesikhombisa, okwenza kube lula ukwandisa umkhiqizo million 16.5. Amathani ngo nyaka futhi izigidi ezingu-17. Amathani ezilandelayo.

Ukwehla yokucwenga

Iqiniso ukuthi amavolumu ezingeziwe uwoyela ongahluziwe luzothekeliswa, akekho ophikayo. Ngokusho inhloko VYGON Consulting G. Vygon, Ministry of Economic Development okunakekela ukunciphisa kungenzeka ukunikezela emakethe izwe 2.4% (laya ezigidini ezingu-236. Amathani) ayilungile mayelana nokukhula komnotho zokukhiqiza kanye ukwehla lokusetjentiswa ekhaya imikhiqizo ngokuhlaziya. Sales uphethiloli amamaki ehlukahlukene diesel wakhula iminyaka engu-15, kodwa yawela 2.3% ngo-2015. Ngakho, kukhona isizathu sokulindela ukuba sinciphise, futhi ukukhula lemikhiqizo 13 million. Amathani kulo nyaka, kusukela iphuzu Ngenxa yemali ngokugcwalisa isabelomali kahle. Isizathu salokhu isobala, amaRashiya waqala ukushayela ngaphansi futhi uthenge imoto (okuyinto Yiqiniso, kubi). Ngokwesibonelo, ngo-2008 inani labantu usezuze imishini 3 million, ngisho nangaphezu kokubhema e-Germany, esikhathini esidlule, 2015 m, 1.2 million kuphela. Ngakho, nophethiloli nabantu wathenga kancane.

Umthelela isimo intengo uphethiloli kuleli zwe

Ukuthekelisa ngeke uwoyela ngokweqile hhayi kuphela, futhi umkhiqizo. Kulesi futhi ngonyaka ozayo amakhono ezengeziwe ukwenziwa uphethiloli uzobe wasungula, futhi konke okusele senzelwe emakethe angaphandle. umthamo wayo kufinyelele ezigidini 9.1 mln. Amathani, okuyinto umkhuba omuhle, njengoba value added iphezulu kakhulu kuleli cala kuka ukudayisa izinto zokusetshenziswa. Nokho, ulindele ukwehla intengo ye abashayeli isiRashiya, ngeshwa, akudingekile, uma ilitha 92-th e 2014 abiza ngokwesilinganiso ruble angu-31. 40 kopecks, kuyilapho kwikota yokuqala ka kulo nyaka -. Ruble 34. 10 kopecks. Ukuze uqonde isizathu ukuziphatha okufana uphethiloli kufanele lokumba izici intengo yayo, ngu ezithinta kakhulu intela mkhuba (ngo-2015-ke lancipha), izingcaphuno uwoyela kanye ukwehla (e elifanayo 2015 ke "ungeze ruble 6. 80 kopecks. Per ilitha ), i-fuel Kungashiwo okufanayo wathengiswa ngamaRandi noma euro.

Ezinye izici nomthelela ezingemnandi

Ibhalansi phakathi kwaneliswe isidingo kancane kancane ahambisana uwoyela emhlabeni, naphezu Iranian "kuhlasela" futhi zisezintsha Saudi. wenza izinto ebezingathuntubeza emakethe supersaturation kolunye uhlangothi, ngeshwa, ngokuvamile kubuhlungu ngempela ngisho edabukisayo. E-Iraq, abashokobezi yashaya i ipayipi elithwala uwoyela ke Kwenzeka into efanayo e-Colombia, Kuwait isiteleka abadobi eCanada, ukusha kwamahlathi iphutha lapho nje, lapho kukhona catch. Konke lokhu kuye kwanciphisa sipho.

Yini enye inomthelela ibhalansi?

Demand yanda, ekukhuleni kwayo zaba 1.4 mln. Barrel ngosuku, futhi umthamo Imininingwane safinyelela 95,9 million. Bbl., Futhi zonke ngekota yokuqala ka kulo nyaka. Abathengi main babe eChina, eNdiya neRussia. ukusetshenziswa omkhulu onjalo kwaba esingalindelekile for emakethe. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, Saudi Arabia akukayifezi usongo yayo, umthamo yayo yansuku zonke ukukhiqizwa kwaba 10, 2 million. Barrel. baziphathe kanye nabo bonke abanye OPEC, ngaphandle Iran, yebo. Vele abaqondi ukuthi kungani ku Doha ukuze waphumula. Kodwa umphumela ebaluleke kakhulu ekunciphiseni intengo - lena ukwehla ekukhiqizeni emazweni lapho izindleko zokukhiqiza ziphezulu, ngokuvumelana IEA umhlahlo, bazokwazi ukuphakela imiphongolo ayizinkulungwane 800 kuphela .. ngosuku.

amathemba

UMnyango wezaMandla eyanyatheliswa umbiko ngoMeyi 12, owawuthi intengo kawoyela kuze 2040 ongathuthuka kuzo ukuze 252 zamadola umphongolo. Nokho, bavumela abanye zimo, kuye ngokuthi izimo ezihlukahlukene, okuthiwa izinombolo $ 76 (sinesimo sengqondo negative) noma $ 141 (sekulinganiswa lwangempela). Nokho, lokho kutawentekani yingxenye yesine yekhulu leminyaka, kunzima ukuba umahluleli, kanye ngalokho kuyoba ngesikhathi real amandla wokuthenga we lwemali US. Kepha esifishane (iminyaka emibili), kukhona isizathu sethemba ukuba intengo 70-75 zamadola nge okungenzeka ongaphakeme ekufezeni izibazi 100. Russian bear labo amanani, kodwa izimbangi zayo ngokusobala awavumelani wonke abayosinda.