Ukungazinzi komnotho omkhulu

ukusimama komnotho omkhulu - kuba kunalokho ngengozi kuka umthetho. Prakthiza libonisa ukuthi umnotho akukho ibhalansi. Ngemva kwenkathi ukuchuma nokuthuthukiswa iza isikhathi recession, ephelezelwa abangasebenzi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, imijikelezo kwezomnotho futhi izinhlobo ezahlukene zinkathi, kanye nezinye izici. Ngakho, ngokwale ndlela isikhathi zingabantu emifishane kanye nephakathi nendawo eside.

Imijikelezo iDemo ezikhonjwe Dzhozef Kitchin, Economist British. Yena exhunywe nabo ekushintshashintsheni yegolide. PERIODICITY, okuyinto lihlelwe Kitchin, kuyinto lokuphatha izinyanga ezingamashumi amane.

Wesley Mitchell, umsunguli we Econometrics, wayekholelwa ukuthi imijikelezo iDemo isizathu itholakala inzuzo imali, futhi wavumelana imvamisa odlule.

Eqinisweni, lezi imijikelezo zihlobene nokungakwazi ukuzimelela emakethe umthengi. Izinguquko emkhakheni credit ziyimbangela wabo, ngakho avele ngendlela ziwe credit.

Engxenyeni kwekhulu le-19 yesibili, Klement Zhuglyar, a Economist isiFulentshi, bahlola imijikelezo isilinganiso. udaba lwabo wabona, futhi, emkhakheni wesikweletu. Klement Zhuglyar ezikhonjwe ukuvama imijikelezo yesibili eminyakeni eyisishiyagalombili kuya kweyishumi.

Kungokufanayo uhlobo imijikelezo kukhona imijikelezo nokwakhiwa imakwe nguSimon Kuznets. Yena exhunywe nabo ngezikhathi ezithile (zonke iminyaka eyishumi nanhlanu noma amabili) uthuthukise izindlu.

Imijikelezo Long (noma eside) zikhona ngenxa yezinguquko ingqalasizinda, amandla nobuchwepheshe ukhiye. Kungenjalo, umjikelezo ubizwa nangokuthi Kondratiev umjikelezo, ngokuvumelana ekufundiseni igama Russian - Nikolaya Kondrateva. Watadisha amalahle ukukhiqizwa Dynamics, steel, ithini, kanye ezingeni isilinganiso inkokhelo, amanani, namanye amazwe kanye nezinye izinkomba eU.S. Kwamanye amazwe Western Europe iminyaka 140 (kusukela Emashumini amabili eminyaka adlule kwekhulu le-18 kanye nesiphetfo engamashumi amabili ekhulwini lama-20). Kondratyev izifundo econometric kunquma ukuthi imijikelezo eziningi minyaka 54-55, ngenkathi ugcina zenyuka, zehla isigaba.

isigaba phansi lapho beshintsha core ubuchwepheshe kanye izakhiwo zobuchwepheshe Uthatha iminyaka engu-20 kuya ku-25.

Rising isigaba, lapho umphakathi kubhekene bachuma umnotho, kwezobuchwepheshe nesayensi, Uthatha engu-25 kuya ku-30.

I yakhoibrium emnothweni engekho ngenxa yezizathu eziningi. Okokuqala, nokuntengantenga ku Macro ixhomeke ezicini ezifana ukukhiqizwa imishini yezobuchwepheshe. izinguquko njalo avuse nezikhawu ezimfushane komnotho kanye yokutakula, nalabo abenziwe kancane njalo (isibonelo, ukwakhiwa kwamabhuloho amasha kanye nezinye izakhiwo), ukwenza lezi ibe yinde.

Nokho, ukuntengantenga komnotho omkhulu kubangelwa hhayi kuphela yilo isici. Inkinga PERIODICITY yokuguquguquka ekudleni emnothweni ayizange wahlala noyedwa sokunganaki zezomnotho of 19-20 eminyaka. Ukuzama ukuqonda izimbangela zalesi simo, baye wadala eningi eyeza nezazi zezinkanyezi ezikhuluma ezahlukene. Khona-ke abakhululiwe main zichazwe nge nokuntengantenga komnotho singalendlela.

1. Ngokusho imfundiso yokuziphendukela lokuqala, umphumela waleso senzo eyenziwe namafutha cyclical futhi Okuphindaphinda.

2. Abagqugquzeli imfundiso yokuziphendukela zezombusazwe umjikelezo ibhizinisi bakholelwa ukuthi kuphakama ukuntengantenga komnotho omkhulu ngenxa abenzi inqubomgomo emkhakheni imali, zimali, ukubolekisa kanye nokukhokha intela.

3. abavikeli inkolelo-mbono yokuziphendukela umjikelezo yakhoibrium ibhizinisi izizathu usibone zivuleka umkhuba kwesikhathi esifitshane.

4. Ososayensi bathi yangempela umjikelezo ibhizinisi, basikisela ukuthi ukuntengantenga komnotho omkhulu kwenzeka ngenxa yezinguquko okungazelelwe ezahlukene imikhakha yezomnotho, okungukuthi, lapho ngokucijile ekushintsheni ubuchwepheshe ukukhiqizwa.

Ngayinye yalezi zemibono ngezinga elithile kahle zibonisa izizathu kokungabaza. Kodwa imfundiso yokuziphendukela jikelele ukuthi ababeyobona zonke izikole kwezomnotho, namuhla alikho.