Obani abazuzayo ukuwa kwamanani kawoyela? Isazi ngokuthi isimo amanani kawoyela

Kusukela ngasekupheleni kwehlobo 2014, intengo kawoyela emakethe emhlabeni aqala ukuncipha kakhulu. Nge $ 110 usenesigcwagcwa cishe ngesigamu futhi namuhla ngidayisa at $ 56. International umhlaziyi eqinile eyaziwa ngokuthi ejensi «Bloomberg New Energy Finance», olwenziwa ukuhlaziya isimo futhi wazama ukuthola ukuthi yiliphi izwe iwine futhi okuyinto elahlekile kusukela wokugoqa kukaphethiloli ezimakethe zomhlaba.

Ubani ophumelele kanye nalabo abalahlekelwe: umbono generalized

Ukuhlaziya nge umbuzo osizakalayo ukuwa kwamanani kawoyela, kufanele kusho ukuthi owokuqala ukwehla elibukhali izindleko "igolide abamnyama" hit amazwe timbiwa. Isibonelo okuphawuleka eRussia, okuyinto kwakheka omningi walo isabelomali kungenxa zokuthumela nophethiloli. Ukuwa izindleko fuel sekubangele ukwehla elibukhali amanani kwezimpahla kule mikhakha olukhulunywa kulelo umnotho, ikakhulukazi amafutha kanye nasemkhakheni yokucwenga. amazwe Uwoyela-ukungenisa Uthole inzuzo kuleso simo. Ngemva amanani kawoyela eRussia futhi emhlabeni zehle kakhulu, e-Europe, i-India neChina bakwazi ukuthenga uphethiloli ngesikhathi intengo emangalisayo yokuncintisana. amabhizinisi wabo bathole entsha sihloko ukonga kungenzeka ukuthola inzuzo enkulu. Kodwa ngo-US isimo ngendlela ekabili. Amanye amaprojekthi ezihlobene ekuthuthukiseni lamafutha oluthambile, ivaliwe, kanye emhlabeni wonke. Okunye imikhakha yezomnotho ithole ithuba ekuthuthukiseni ngokuqondene ekuphunguleni yezindleko zikaphethiloli zokunciphisa yizimpahla izindleko. Ngokuvamile, izwe uye wazuza isimo.

Ngokuyinhloko ethintekile lezimpahla umnotho

Njengoba kushiwo ngenhla, intengo kawoyela emakethe kakhulu kubonakala ezweni nohlobo ebomvu umnotho. Hardest-hit isabelomali wombuso kwamiswa ngesisekelo izindleko nophethiloli. Lithi oil-producing parallel ukuwa ezadala umonakalo ngo amanani banda engasogwini kwesabelo sezimali. E-Iran, ibhajethi olinganiselayo kungenzeka uma izindleko kukawoyela 136 zamadola umphongolo. Ngo Venezuela neNigeria, lokhu kusilela ngeke ngentengo zamadola 120. Ukuze Russia, izindleko kahle fuel elihambisana 94 zamaRandi. Ngokusho Anton Siluanov, wakhonza njengephayona uNgqongqoshe Wezezimali, umonakalo kwesabelomali Russian ngeke azisizi ruble 1 trillion uma intengo yamafutha 2015 izobanjelwa ezingeni zamadola 75. Ngenxa yokuthi ezingeni intengo fuel ephansi kakhulu kunalokho kuhlelwe, uthi kufanele kuncishiswe izindleko futhi nxephezela them kusukela Isikhwama Reserve.

Ukulahlekelwa inzuzo yokuthi kunemisebenzi emisha yokuthuthukisa emhlabeni

Okuphansi uwoyela amanani hit hhayi kuphela kwamanye amazwe emazweni, emakethe isimo ushiye omubi nomthelela ukuwohloka komnotho wamazwe ukuthi bekwi ekwenziweni kwamaphrojekthi okuhlobene isizinda kanzima ukuze alulame. Russia kwadingeka ngiyeke ukuthuthukiswa kukaphethiloli e-Arctic, njengoba izindleko zokukhiqiza esifundeni okungukuthi okulingana $ 90 per emgqonyeni. Vagit Alekperov, owakhonza njengelungu wenkampani "Lukoil" kusho ukuthi iminyaka embalwa ezayo, umthamo we umkhiqizo kawoyela kuleli zwe kuzoncishiswa okungenani u-25%. Kuyaphawuleka abathintekayo amaphrojekthi amapulanka okwakwenza ukuthuthukiswa imali kwezilwandle "igolide omnyama". ezifakwa okusha yalolu hlobo kuthiwa ayenziwa eBrazil Norway, Mexico neRussia. Umnotho ngamunye ezweni baba engozini.

Ukuwa kwe-emakethe futhi isimo e-US

Ukuwa kwamanani kawoyela eRussia futhi emhlabeni sabonakala Melika. ukulahlekelwa Serious kwadingeka ukuba bazilethele US izinkampani oluthambile. e-US uwoyela oluthambile akuyona zihlukaniswa inzuzo okusezingeni eliphezulu, okwaholela ukulahleka kwemisebenzi e abaningi babo. Abaningana impela amaphrojekthi ziye simisiwe. Shale revolution, okuyinto uthi cishe umhlaba wonke, ngokusho kongoti, kushabalele. Sikhishwe yokuthi manje kuhluka 54-56 zamarandi emhlabeni intengo emakethe uphethiloli umphongolo, mayelana inzuzo impahla ezinkulukazi kusukela tekutfutfukisa talelive siqu hhayi ewundabuzekwayo.

Ubani izinzuzo kusukela ekuweni emafutheni amanani, noma Owenziwa Theory

Phakathi izazi emhlabeni, kunemibono eminingi nemibono ngokuthi ubani owayemkhulu umqalisi ngokuwa kwamanani kawoyela. Phakathi umqondo ngamunye kuyiqiniso isiza ekubuyiseleni izinto ezibonakalayo emazweni nokusolakala wathatha ingxenye kulolo zungu. Hassan Rowhani, ubani owaba ngumongameli wase-Iran, kusikisela iwayini Saudi Arabia kanye Kuwait, okuyinto ahloselwe ukwehlisa isabelo Iran emakethe uwoyela global. It wangazinaka yokuthi kula mazwe cishe eqolo emhlabeni ngezimo. Kunemibono ukuthi atshele mayelana usole Saudi Arabia ne-United States, lapho wafuna ngideleleke waseRussia emhlabeni. Uma ucabangela umbuzo othi obani abazuzayo ukuwa kwamanani kawoyela, abanye ochwepheshe bathi zingaba Ukugcizelelwa isifiso Saudi Arabia kuya ekubhujisweni American uwoyela oluthambile umkhakha, njengoba kuba ngokuhamba kwesikhathi kunosongo ezweni.

Njengoba izinto ume ngokoqobo?

Abahlaziyi bathi ukuwa kwamanani kawoyela - ke is phetho engokwemvelo lonke uchungechunge lwezenzakalo ezenzeka emhlabeni ngosuku olwandulela ukuwa emakethe. Generalized konke zingancishiswa ukwandisa isibalo iziphakamiso. Shale revolution e-United States, ukubuya emakethe amafutha Iran naseLebanoni, okuyinto usanda wahlanganyela izindaba zomphakathi, futhi waba nengxenye ekulweni. Zona efanayo oluthambile revolution United States, hhayi kuphela ukuze sikhuthaze ukwanda supply emakethe, sesiye imfuneko ukuhoxiswa kusukela ngobukhulu umthengi emakethe (Melika).

Isinyathelo phambili ku kokuwa emakethe uwoyela

Ehlelekile okwandisa intengo kawoyela eminyakeni, onikezwe ukuthuthukiswa umnotho zomhlaba, kwenza kube sobala ukuthi kule minyaka eyishumi eyedlule, zazuza amazwe uphethiloli timbiwa. Ngokwesibonelo, i-Russia ngenxa gxuma elibukhali amanani kuze kufinyelele ezingeni zamadola umphongolo 120 angase ngokushesha asule izikweletu angaphandle. Namuhla isimo sishintshile. Nakuba kakhulu athuthukile kwamanye amazwe emazweni intando nakho ukwehla komnotho isabelomali kusilela, othuthukayo uthi namazwe ukuthi akudingeki Friend esibophezelayo kuya lezimpahla izimakethe, ungase uthathe isinyathelo phambili futhi kakhulu ibhalansi isimo emhlabeni emakethe.

izinzuzo Specific kanye nezinzuzo kusuka ukuwohloka kwamanani kawoyela

Nakuba intengo kawoyela, OPEC, America, eRussia nakwamanye amazwe amaningi nje kungukuthi wanelisa, badlala ezandleni eziningi kwamanye amazwe emhlabeni. Ukwehlisa intengo yemali "igolide abamnyama" kuholela ukuncipha izindleko izinkampani eziningi emhlabeni wonke. Ukuthuthwa kwezimpahla falling in intengo, izinkampani imali engaphansi ku ukuthengwa izinto zokusetshenziswa kanye nogesi. Yokungenisa amazwe ngaphansi kwesimo isimo global Kwakudida ukwandisa kwemali ngeniso emakhaya ngokwezibalo zangempela. I jikelele inhliziyo ezimbi emhlabeni eqinisweni kuphela sikhuthaze ukuthuthukiswa komnotho womhlaba. Kulinganiselwa wokulungiselela, ukuncishiswa uphethiloli izindleko ku oda 30% ukwanda kanye ngesivinini nokuthathe kwenza izinga lokhula ngu 0.5 amaphuzu Falling izintengo 10% kuvusa ukukhula GDP zokungenisa "igolide black", hhayi ngaphansi kuka 0.1 - 0.5 ngemaphesenti States ukubhekana nezinkinga ezihlobene isabelomali futhi sithuthukise namanye amazwe. China 10% uphethiloli izindleko emnothweni ukuwa ngesivinini ukukhula 0.1 - 0.2% ngenxa yokuthi ukuthi isabelo ezweni uwoyela ebangela% 18 kuphela wezindleko energy eyanele. Isimo nomthelela omuhle India naseTurkey, Indonesia kanye waseNingizimu Afrika ukhuthaza namanye amazwe kanye nokunciphisa izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali. Izinzuzo wokugoqa emakethe ku ngokwayo wazizwa emazweni amaningi-EU ne iminotho ababuthakathaka futhi iningi eMpumalanga Yurophu.

Ingabe ahlupheke OPEC amazwe ngalesi simo?

Naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi nokuqedwa OPEC kusilela izindleko amafutha kufanele ibe sezingeni of 120 kuya 136 zamadola, isimo jikelele asizange sibe buhlungu yingozi umnotho. Eqinisweni, izindleko zokukhiqiza uphethiloli e-United iqhaza OPEC lihlala at 5- $ 7. Ukuze ikhava eliphezulu kwezenhlalo yomphakathi nezindleko amazwe, uhulumeni anelisa uphethiloli izindleko Brent ongahluziwe emhlabeni 70 zamaRandi. Ukwenqaba ukunciphisa amafutha amavolumu ukukhiqizwa akunakubangelwa hhayi collude, nomlando. Lapho 80-90-yalolucwaningo ka ezivuna wezwe ukubambezela ukuwa amanani, beye bakhohliswa kanti ingxenye imakethe yabo ukuthi ngokushesha okukhulu elalihlala izimbangi. iminotho ukunqabela Nokho unamandla kakhulu ngenxa yesimo sezwe, kodwa akuyona ebulalayo. States niyaqhubeka nilondoloze inqubomgomo, sihlelwe ngaphansi okuyinto ukwandisa yonyaka ukukhiqizwa ivolumu fuel ezingeqile kwezingama-30%.

Noma iluphi ushintsho ebaleni simo, ochwepheshe ulindele?

Uma ucabangela umbuzo othi obani abazuzayo ukuwa kwamanani kawoyela, izazi zigcizelela ukuthi inzuzo kakhulu izimo ayitholanga abaningi emazweni asethuthukile neChina. Isimo ngeke esimweni static phakade, ngoba ngaleso sikhathi uphethiloli kakhulu phansi. Kwawo kwangempela inani kufanele libe ku ezahlukene $ 100. Eminyakeni embalwa eyalandela, kuze kube isikhathi lapho uzobe ukulinganisela umnotho wembulunga yonke, le ntengo akuyona kukufanelekele ukulinda. Edward Morse, owakhonza njengelungu kwenhloko yomnyango sokuhlaziya lezimakethe zomhlaba sikanye Citigroup, okwenza 70 kuya $ 90 ukubheja ku range intengo umphongolo. Ngokubona kwakhe, kungukungcola le ntengo kuzovumela amazwe kancane athuthukile ukuze uhambisane nesincintisana yabo ithuthukiswe ngenxa ukumiswa yokugcina ngenxa engenayo ephansi kusukela ukudayiswa nophethiloli. Intengo kawoyela eminyakeni kubonisa ukuthi manje kwaba ukuqala uthi abasha ukuba izikhundla ezimakethe zomhlaba.

Izibikezelo ezinkulu ejensi yokulinganisela emhlabeni

Izinhlelo ngokuzayo njengokufanele lokho kuyoba intengo yamafutha ruble futhi zamadola, ezahlukene ochwepheshe kwahluka insignificantly. Abameleli beNdikimba utshalomali yasebhange Morgan Stanley kusengozini lapho $ 70 per emgqonyeni ekupheleni 2015 no- $ 88 ekupheleni 2016. Isibikezelo kusekelwe ukwehluleka OPEC ukwehlisa ukukhiqizwa uphethiloli. Izilinganiso Fitch Wethule izibikezelo zinikeza nethemba kakhudlwana. abameleli bakhe bathini mayelana intengo 83 zamaRandi ekupheleni konyaka futhi intengo zamadola 90 ngo-2016. Lokhu kungenxa yokwehla okulindeleke ukuba ukukhula iminotho ampofu ukuba 4%, okungase inselelo nezinye izazi eziningi. Iningi Izazi ziyavuma ne umbono ozakwabo Lubophela ukuba isimo sangempela dollar. Intengo kawoyela esikhathini eside ngeke kube ngaphansi kuka $ 100, futhi isizathu esiyinhloko ukuthi - Ukuwohloka esihleliwe fuel ezifakwa nge yenzuzo ephansi Ukwanda kwenani izimoto emhlabeni.

Efingqa, isithombe mazombe seragelo okwenzekayo noma

Uma uthi nhlá, lutho okuhle ukulinda kwaba awubalulekile yini catastrophically sebeqale intengo kawoyela. Analytics nokucabangela ezijulile avunyelwe ukubona ezicini ezinhle isimo emakethe emhlabeni. Umnotho wembulunga yonke samukelwa kahle lesi simo. Ngokusho Lagarde, futhi ngokusho kombiko owandulelayo IMF, ekuweni iminotho uwoyela athuthukile bangalindela nokukhula kwe-GDP ka 0.8%, ngokukhethekile, ngoba e-United States, lesi sibalo oluhambisana 0.6%. Ukuwa kwamanani kawoyela ukhuthaza ukuwa intengo kaphethiloli, okuyinto kuvula amathuba imali anda nezinye izimpahla kanye nezinsizakalo. Ukudlondlobala komnotho nokuthuthukiswa uyoqiniseka futhi uzinzile. Uma wafunda intengo kawoyela, i umhlaziyi kusukela inkampani Oxford Economics ukuthi ngentengo $ 60 umphongolo ngamunye ngokuhamba kule minyaka emibili edlule, izibikezelo nokukhula kwe-GDP eChina izokwenyuka ngo 0.4% eJapane nase-United States 0.1 - 0.2%.