I ukwehla of the ruble Belarusian ngo-2015. Uyini ukwehla of the ruble Belarusian futhi kulapho lisongela labantu?

Uma ucabangela umbuzo uyini ukwehla of the ruble Belarusian, qala yokuthi iyunithi yemali e Belarus ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule luveza a ukwazisa abukhali kubhasikidi lwemali. Ngo parallel, lo mkhuba uye waba yisikhuthazo ukwehla okukhulu kwamandla liqhathaniswa ne-dollar ne-euro. Ngokusho kochwepheshe, imbangela Esimweni esinjalo kuleli zwe kwaba umnotho isimo nezwe wonkana. Esikhathini kusuka ngoJanuwari kuya ku-November 2014 ekuqiniseni uhlelo ruble Belarusian khona isilinganiso 2.25% ngokumelene euro, i-dollar ne-ruble Russian. Isizathu salokhu ephonsa ruble Russian nohlobo lwemali euro ukuba ezimakethe zomhlaba jikelele. Uma umbuzo ukuthi leso ukwehla uzocelwa eziningi, namhlanje impendulo ngempela sobala ngonyaka odlule. Ingabe, hhayi elilodwa.

Baphi ukukhathazeka?

Ngokwemininingwane enikezwa yi-National Bank of Republic, kusukela ekuqaleni 2015 ukwehla kwentengo lwemali kazwelonke ukuze US dollar ngo 1,92%, kuyilapho i-euro - 2,46%. Futhi zonke ayeyokwenza, kodwa labantu ojwayele ukukala izinga kwabo ingcebo lwemali US. Njengoba kushiwo ngenhla, njengoba sekube nesicelo nokuqiniswa lwemali ngokumelene ruble Russian ku-oda kuka-18%. Leli qiniso akashintshi isimo ukwehla. Selokhu 2000, kwanqunywa ukuba enze izibikezelo kanye ukugcina imali yabo kumadola. A mkhuba efanayo eliqhubela iqiniso lokuthi ukwehla of the ruble Belarusian e 2015 isazoqhubeka wazizwa. Ngokusho abahlaziyi, kuba National Bank ulungisa izinga kokungathembeki kuleli zwe, ukuthi ehlelekile kunciphisa inani le-ruble.

Okuyoholela a ukwehla?

Uma ucabangela umbuzo uyini ukwehla of the ruble Belarusian, akunakwenzeka hhayi ukuziqhakambisa ngezimbangela lomkhuba. Isimo kungenxa yokuthi ngenxa yokuncipha kokubaluleka umnotho wembulunga yonke, ezweni uyekile ukuthenga lwemali kule elingakanani uthenge ngaphambili. Ngenxa yalokho, ukugeleza zamadola awubhekene outflow lwemali eveni. Demand idlula supply. Umehluko imbozwe zokweboleka. Lokhu kubangela ukuwa esithambile lwemali kazwelonke. Azikho izici ezingase ukushintsha isimo, kubonisa kuphela ukuqhubeka lo mkhuba. Ukuntuleka kokukhulumisana lwemali kanzima kuleli zwe ukhuluma revaluation abalulekile lwemali Belarusian ukuba US dollar, owawungumnyaka ezingeni 20-30% ngo-July 2014. With okusezingeni eliphezulu izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali isimo izimpahla ukukhuthalele ezikhulayo intengo ezimakethe zamazwe omhlaba, izimpahla amazwe babe sikhange ngokwengeziwe kubantu ezisebenza izakhamuzi zezwe. Ukwandisa ukungalingani kuholela isidingo isimo ukuze uqale ukwehla of the ruble ukuqeda nokungezwani ngaphakathi emakethe exchange angaphandle.

isikhonkwane Nzima dollar - yezimbangela lomkhuba

Ngenxa Friend yokubopha ruble Belarusian kuya dollar, njengoba kuphawulwe ngenhla, kukhona ukungalingani oqinile ezimakethe zangaphandle. Nakuba lwemali kazwelonke depreciates liqhathaniswa ne-dollar, buqina nakakhulu uma siqhathanisa nabanye zezimali zomhlaba. Uhulumeni wanquma ukuthumela izinga lokushintshisana ukuntanta ngokukhululekile, njengoba ukugcina ukuzinza is hhayi etholwe kule mboni. Ngisho nangaphambi kokuba inqubomgomo inhlekelele yama-Central Bank okuhloswe ngazo ukunciphisa ukubaluleka lwemali kule ezahlukene 1% ngenyanga. Ukuqedwa izinga fixed kufanele ukusiza ukuxazulula izinkinga ne nokuthengiswa. Ukwanda izikweletu ngaphandle, destabilization kohlelo yasebhange - ke nje into yesikhashana, okuyinto esikhathini esizayo kuyoba phezu.

Iyini imbangela yale nkinga?

Ukuze siqonde impikiswano ukuthi iyona ukwehla of the ruble Belarusian, kubalulekile ekuqaleni ukwenza ukuhlolwa isimo somnotho. idatha yokuqala ikhomba ukuthi ekupheleni 2015 ukwehla kwamandla kazwelonke uyofinyelela 40-50%. Esinye sezizathu eziyinhloko - nesanda izenzakalo Inkinga umakhelwane eliseduze, Russia, exponentially. Izwe ingaphezu 60-70% axhomeke Russia, ngakho-ke, ukwakha ubambiswano kuyoba nzima kakhulu isikhathi ngasinye. Inkinga yamanje lihlukile izinkinga esidlule ukuthi ezakhiwe ezicini eziningana ke. Lokhu kubangela hhayi kuphela yangaphakathi kodwa futhi zangaphandle, ezifana unswinyo ebekwa EU futhi ukuwa kwamanani kawoyela. credit waseRussia isilinganiso - iyona zakamuva utshalomali indawo kanye ezingeni predspekulyativny. capital emakethe ngomakhelwane Belarus ivaliwe, ukubaluleka imali inyuka, omakhelwane ningabi ophana kakhulu. Ngo parallel, ukubaluleka imali uyanda futhi ibhizinisi Belarusian. Namuhla izinga refinancing eRussia 8,25%, futhi Belarus - 25%. Lezi zinombolo kuzokhulisa nje intengo kawoyela ziyokuwa futhi izosebenza kuze unswinyo. Izimo ngenhla echazwe kungithinte naleso sakhamuzi yezwe ngokusebenzisa Belarus ruble. izinguquko ezimqoka enkambweni izenzakalo ungenza lolukhetho oluzayo kuleli zwe.

Yini ngithi izibikezelo 2015?

Umbuzo ukuthi leso ukwehla yini noma cha niwile, kodwa umthamo yayo kungenziwa ngemibuzo. Figure at 40-50% wabantu abambalwa kakhulu ujabule. Kungase kube nezinkinga imikhakha efana mkhakha kanye zezimali, ingcebo, kanye nezinye izindawo ezenzelwe umsebenzisi sekupheleni. UMongameli Lukashenko esithangamini nabezindaba wakhuluma ngesimo ukuhlobana ukukhululwa kuka-ruble ngenxa lwemali netwetwe sabantu. Ngokuqinisekile amacebo uhulumeni ayikaze a ukwehla of the ruble, kanye mortgages bebelokhu ukuhlala ngaphakathi okungabizi. Lesi sinqumo ngenxa yokuthi uhulumeni uzimisele kangakanani ukugcina igolide yayo izinqolobane. inqubomgomo Belarus evulekile ayikwazanga ukuzizwa esibucayi e-Ukraine futhi eRussia. Naphezu ukwethuka, yebo, futhi manje ukugadwa. Ukushintsha imodeli kwezomnotho is kuhlelwe. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kwamenyezelwa umphakathi ukuthi isizathu ukwehla of the ruble 2015, leyehlukehlukene ngenhlanhla, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, isimo zizoshintsha kakhulu.

ukwehla okulindele

Ukwehla okulindele emphakathini sinomthelela ukwanda kwamanani ezimpahla kwehlela ngenxa isidingo lwemali futhi izimpahla. Kukhula izidingo labantu sika kumadola, euro futhi ruble ukuyiveza ngisho ukwehla okunye. It ngesivinini kwamandla emali. Ekupheleni 2014 ngenhloso ukuceka isidingo lwemali kahulumeni uye wasungula ikhomishini ukuthengwa imali angaphandle inani 30%. Ngemuva kokuwa iphesenti injabulo waqala ukukhansela izinyathelo 10%, okuyinto kwakulandelwa ukuwa kufana kazwelonke lwemali ukubaluleka hhayi ngaphansi kuka-7% isikhathi ngasinye. Lokhu kwaba ezomenza osomabhizinisi uhulumeni. Amaphesenti Sashintshana kulinganiswe ukwehla kwemali.

Yisiphi isenzakalo esingakabonakali esizolandela

Uma isimo ozokhula ngalesi sakhiwo futhi ngalolu daba esikhathini esizayo esiseduze ezweni ukuthi ukwehla of the ruble Belarusian sizobuyiselwange ukulindela emali. Lokhu kuyoba isizathu ukwanda e idiphozi amazinga, okuzokwenza ukuqinisa isifiso sabantu ukulondoloza. Cishe akukho kungabaza ukuthi wenyanga eyodwa kuzoqhubeka ukwehla of the ruble-2015. Yini benze abantu kulesi simo? Ungethuki. Kuyindlela enengqondo kunazo zonke izimo. inqubomgomo Okuxekethile yemali kungaholela isizukulwane emali komunye nomunye, kanjalo zakha an Kuvunguza inflation. Uma lomkhuba kuyokwenzeka, uhulumeni kuyodingeka epha kambaphambili kuze amabhizinisi hhayi emakhaya namaqembu engenayo ephansi.

I ukwehla ngasekupheleni 2014

Umbuzo lokho kusho ukuthini ukwehla of the ruble, ayinandaba kakhulu umphakathi ekupheleni 2014. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi kungenzeki lo mkhuba yokubaleka. Isizathu salokho ukuthi yayiyini inkinga ezibhekene nokukhishwa Russia. izici subjective nezingokwengqondo omcasule ukwethuka. Osukwini olulodwa nje, okungukuthi ku-18 Disemba Belarusians nathengwa lwemali ku lemali zamadola kwezigidi ezingu-80, okuyinto kaningi amanani ngokwesilinganiso. Ekwindla ka onyakeni ofanayo, ivolumu lwemali ukuthenga musa idlule $ 5 million. cishe ngokushesha Amandla wathatha izinyathelo ezinqala futhi wanquma ake ukuntanta ngokukhululekile. Uma eqhathaniswa 2011, lapho abaholi bezwe lutho, ukusabela kwakhe ngokushesha.

Yini eyaholela podeshevlenie lwemali emakethe?

Cabanga yini eyabangela ukwehla of the ruble-2015. Yini ngamunye ngeke ukuzinqumela ngokwabo, kodwa ngemiphumela lomkhuba kungahlolwa. Inzuzo enkulu ngenxa isimo got abathuthi. Kulesi push enkulu akufanele kulindeleke, ngoba umthengi eyinhloko yokuthutha izimpahla Belarusian silibangise eRussia umusa (ngaphezu kuka-43% lemikhiqizo), kodwa okwamanje kubhekene a Ukwehla. Kukhula kwemnotfo ivinjelwe yasebhange senzalo, okuyinto eyaba unfeasible ngokuphelele nezinhlelo ezihlukahlukene zomnotho. Abaningi, ucabangela umbuzo ukuthi kusho kuya ukwehla of the ruble, bonisa ukwehla imali abayitholayo dollar imigomo. Ngenxa yokubopha lwemali kazwelonke ngesikhathi esifanayo ne-dollar, euro ruble kukhona ukuntengantenga abalulekile. I ukwehla of the ruble kanye mortgage emigomeni eyamukelekayo - Umqondo cishe engahambelani. Namuhla, lwemali kazwelonke isibe inkomba isimo umnotho, iwuphawu esimweni saso engazinzile.

Ingabe kubi kangako Yini isimo kuleli zwe futhi zonke?

Ukukhula komnotho Belarus kukhuphuke ngo izikhathi 1.6 ngo-2014. Ngo-2015, it kulindeleke nokukhula kwe-GDP ka 0.2-0.5%. ukukhula Wage kulindeleke ngokuqondene oluzayo ngokhetho. Ukwehla lihlotshaniswa nokuncipha usizo lwezimali ezivela eRussia. Izibalo uthi ngesikhathi ukwehla lokuqala izakhamuzi wezwe uthenge izimoto ecishe ibe yizinkulungwane 48 eRussia, naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi izwe aligcini esihle ukuthengwa kwezimoto. Izindleko zaba abantu abangaba yizigidi ezingu-500. Ukuze silondoloze lwemali kazwelonke, uhulumeni wasebenzisa 760 million, okuholela ukuncipha izinqolobane ngamazwe ukuze $ 5 billion. Isidingo lwemali uye kwaphoqa ukwandisa amazinga kanye eminye ukufriza obolekisayo. It yavalwa izindleko ukudla, kwemithi kanye yamanani kwetimali temabhizimisi embuso. OTC ukuthengiselana nge izimali zakwamanye amazwe babe Taboo kuze 2017. Njengoba umbuzo yini esongela ukwehla of the ruble lalolo, kufanele wathi, futhi ukushintsha zenzalo loans kanye imali. Bona aboshelwa ngokuphelele izinga lokushintshisana kwe-lwemali kazwelonke.

Yini ikusasa libaphatheleni nokuthi ngabe yini izibophezelo wathatha lonke izwe ngokuqondene kokuwa amanani ruble?

Ngo-2015, umbuso kufanele akhokhe ngokugcwele esikweletini zangaphandle, usayizi okuyinto mayelana no 3 billion. Ukwabiwa kwezimali ezivela isabelomali komnikazi kanye nabalingani kufanele kube nomthelela ekuncishisweni funa. ngu usizo Russian ngokuya impahla okungenani, futhi izovula ukugeleza ukungena, kodwa isimo ngeke ukuxazulula ngokuphelele le nkinga. Inkinga ngeke ezingaxazululeki iminyaka e komkhakha wamabhange. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi amafa angaphandle zitholakala ezindaweni ezimbi. ngesilinganiso-50% kuphela ongaqeda ukulahlekelwa imali ekhishiwe nokuningi. Njengoba usuyitadishile umbuzo ukuthi kusho ngenxa ukwehla of the ruble eBelarus, singasho ukuthi le nqubo wezwe ngaphezulu kokujwayelekile. Kusukela 2000, kazwelonke exchange rate neze iqale ngo-10% nje ngesonto izikhathi okungenani 5. Le course ngaphansi ukucindezela funa kwandisa ukungena, inkokhelo ukukhula kakhulu lidlula ukukhiqizwa ngesilinganiso fixed. Umnotho njalo sekuqala ukufudumala ukubolekisa concessional nokwakhiwa ngetimali. Ukwehla ayikaze isetshenziswe ukuqeda le nkinga, njengoba kulandela njalo oda wakhe efuna amaholo aphezulu. umnotho wezwe ngokusekela kwabangane Russia neze ewele emgodini ojulile.