Iran: Amafutha kanye nomnotho

Izinqumo ezenziwe yi-Iran lapho kuvele basayine isivumelwano yenuzi ukukhishwa kuhlolwe inqubomgomo US hhayi kuphela kuleli zwe kodwa esifundeni sisonke.

Kill izinyoni ezimbili ngetshe elilodwa

Isu Iran igxile ukulinganisela phakathi:

• imigomo sangaphakathi wokukhula nokuthuthuka kwezomnotho kanye nohlaka lwenqubomgomo yokuhlinzekwa ukulondolozwa;
• Izinjongo zangaphandle kokulondoloza ukuma evumayo lesifunda loMnyango wezoLimo.

Uma ngaphambi letinhloso kufezekiswe sibonga engenayo evela ukuthengiswa amandla futhi ukushisekela inkolo, kodwa namuhla, lapho kucatshangwa ukuthi Iran iyokhukhula emhlabeni ngamafutha, asizange sigcwaliseke, ezimpini phakathi kwalezi zinhloso iyoba ngenakugwemeka. Ikhumbula izingqinamba ezintsha kwezomnotho, naphezu ephakamisa lwezijeziso, ngokugxila enkulu Islamic Republic ku ukukhula yangaphakathi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi ukuqinisa isikhundla emnothweni kazwelonke ngendlela ezokwenza kube iyahambisana indlela okuhloswe ngayo ukubambisana kunokulwa eMpumalanga Ephakathi.

Ukuhlukunyezwa ubuhle zesifunda, ngakolunye uhlangothi, kungaba akuzuzisi, kunalokho njengoba kuzokwenza ukusetshenziswa kahle kwemithombo. Lesi simo, ngaphezu ushona izingxabano zezombangazwe yangaphakathi e-Iran, kudinga wokubuyekeza lobuKhristu amasu abadlali wendawo kanye nenqubomgomo-United States. Action, ukusunduza lizwe ukuze aqinise yokusimamisa umnotho ukukhula, kunokuba ukuphishekela ebizayo sethubeni elihle eMpumalanga Ephakathi, kuyozuzisa esengeziwe iningi Iran, futhi sisimame esifundeni.

ngemva unswinyo

Umnotho Iran sika ezimpambanweni zomgwaqo. Nezinguquko international isimo namafutha global amathemba yezwe kuyodingeka wenze ukukhetha okuhle ezimweni ezinzima. Ayenalo lalihlanganisa nokubuyiselwa unswinyo ngemuva kokusayina isivumelwano zenuzi unakho ukwandisa yokusiza umuntu ukuba aphefumule. Izinyathelo ezathathwa eminyakeni embalwa edlule, siye sasiza aqukethe kwamandla emali, ukunciphisa nemixhaso, ukufeza exchange rate ukuzinza ngisho ukukhula.

Noma kunjalo, umnotho uhlala ababuthakathaka. Ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi, ikakhulukazi isizukulwane esisha, uhlala ezingeni eliphezulu. Amathemba nyaka zibukeke kangcono ku ukukhanya buthaka izingqinamba zezimali emva kokukhululwa kwe ezinkulu exchange angaphandle izinqolobane, umkhiqizo kawoyela anda, kanye ngokuzethemba okuthuthukayo emakethe, okuholela ekwandeni utshalomali. Isimo sezimali yezwe kungenzeka nakakhulu uma izinyathelo wahlela ukwakha inzuzo, kuhlanganise ukwanda VAT, ukuqedwa lokungayikhokhi intela nokujabulela ukusikeka uxhaso luzoqala, okuyinto, kuhlangene ephakeme production ezifuywayo kanye ukungena, ungaqhubeka ukunciphisa izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali .

izimo Esibi ezibhekene Iran: uwoyela namuhla esizazisayo ngentengo. Lokhu sahlanganisa imfuneko eside kanye nokutshalwa ebizayo ukuvuseleleka ophumayo dosanktsionny ukukhiqizwa ezingeni 4 million imiphongolo ngosuku nokwenyuka zakuleli. Nanobe kwenyuka umkhiqizo kawoyela e-Iran utshalomali ahlobene kuzosiza ukuthi GDP, amanani ukuthekelisa aphansi kungenzeka ufuna ukukwenza buthaka isikhundla zangaphandle kanye nesabelomali. Nge amathemba elinganiselwe nganoma yisiphi isivumelwano okunenjongo ukunqanda izimpahla abakhiqizi ezinkulu, uwoyela izimali kungaba 30% ephansi ukuze 3-4 iminyaka ezayo kuka sezulu ngoba kucatshangwa ka ukululama oqinile 2016. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ekuqongeleleni exchange angaphandle izinqolobane, okuyinto babeyokhonza airbag lekusasa nanini, uzoba mncane. Kulokhu, ayikho indawo ukulondoloza izinqubomgomo expansionary ukuthuthukisa ukukhula. Ngakho, phambili ngcono ubungozi abadala.

izingqinamba

Ngesikhathi esifanayo, umnotho Iran egajwe Ukuhlanekezelwa eside kwesakhiwo ukuthi siqhubeke okwakheka ukukhula umhlahlo yayo. amanani ezibucayi, kuhlanganise exchange rate ntengo nemali-nzalo, ongakabi siphinde sibe nokuphila okuvamile; abadliwa NPLs ezinkulu emkhakheni wezezimali; Umkhakha wangasese ubhekene funa ababuthakathaka futhi ungakufanelekeli lokhu credit ukutholakala; izikweletu State ikhuphukile kanye nemixhaso kutintfo. Izikhonzi engxenyeni kahulumeni ukulawula ingxenye enkulu emnothweni kanye nokufinyelela loans yasebhange. nokubusa ezizimele kanye imvelo ibhizinisi singenele futhi okungezona esobala, okuyinto kubukela kweBraam-. Ukuqiniswa ukuntengantenga lesifunda, kanye ukungaqiniseki ngokuphathelene nokusetshenziswa yesivumelwano zenuzi eminye kwandisa ingozi.

Ukushintsha Izinto Eziza Kuqala: sangekhatsi lesifunda

Ngomqondo obanzi, Iran uhlose ukusheshisa ukukhula komnotho ngaphakathi kohlaka lomgomo ekhona, kuyilapho eqinisa isikhundla amasu endawo. Nokho, abaholi kwezepolitiki yezwe, uhlukaniswe ngamaqembu amabili. Omunye wabo emelelwa abashisekeli bezinguquko futhi uhulumeni technocratic kaMengameli Rouhani, zize kuqala ukukhula komnotho. Ngakho, ithambekele kakhudlwana ukufuna lesifunda ibhalansi amasu nokubambisana eduze nebandla ngaphandle ngenxa noHlelo kwezomnotho. Uma uhulumeni unqume ukwenza ukuxegiswa umnotho zokulungisa ezahlukene, kanye ukunciphisa indima engxenyeni kahulumeni iyasilela, ukuthuthukiswa yangaphakathi yezifundo ithatha cishe zinkulu ukuze zihambelane nabo.

Amandla yesibili imelelwa Abasekeli kanzima umugqa isinqumo abefundisi Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), ngubani ungathanda ukugcina isakhiwo kwezomnotho, njengoba bangabanikazi elikhulu emnothweni.

Emthethweni ngokumelene bezinguquko

Uma imithombo ithunyelwa wemboni izinhlangano zomphakathi, kanye ngomqondo ebanzi we IRGC nabefundisi, ku isakhiwo njalo emnothweni ngokubanzi, izinga lokukhula izokhuphuka emva spurt kokuqala. La mandla uzobuyisa isabelo sabo eziyisisekelo emnothweni kazwelonke kanye nomthelela wakhona abalulekile ngenqubomgomo Iran, ngaleyo ndlela zaholela yenqubomgomo lesifunda kanye angaphandle qina ngezithukuthuku ukuthuthukiswa emnothweni wakuleli. Lesi sikhundla ngeke zisenza sibe ukuntengantenga okwengeziwe esifundeni ngaphandle okwandisa inhlalakahle yezwe.

Kubalulekile wazi ukuthi akucaci ukuthi ekuphathweni zamanje Rouhani, owafika amandla ngenhloso liberalizing emnothweni, umthamo okwanele ukuba sifeze izinguquko ezinkulu ezidingekayo. Yena wayevelele okhethweni yamuva, kodwa sibhekene eqinile izithakazelo kugxilile futhi hardliners. Ngesikhathi yena uye waphumelela ezindaweni:

• lwemali emakethe njengoba sinjalo,
• ukunciphisa ezinye uxhaso,
• ukwehla kwamandla emali.

Kodwa umongameli wezwe angase abe nobunzima nge inqubo ukushesha. Ukuze iziphathimandla kubalulekile isikhala ekunyusweni, ezizohlinzeka ukusekela komphakathi ukuze kuqhutshwe yezinguquko. ukukhuthazwa International futhi ingcindezi kungaba ebalulekile.

Iran, uwoyela kanye nezombusazwe

Esikhathini izimo zakho zamanje, iziphathimandla angayiphishekela phezu kwamasu amathathu ezibanzi:

1) Ukulondoloza isimo esikhona manje.

2) Ukwethulwa yezinguquko olubanzi ngalokuyincenye.

3) Ukufeza ngokulinganisela kabusha abathathi hlangothi kwezombusazwe.

Inketho lwesithathu ziyodamba ethile emkhakheni wangasese utshalomali kanye nokuhlanganiswa kwezimali esimweni lapho Iran ethengisa uwoyela at isivuno esiphansi, kodwa izohamba isakhiwo kwezomnotho nezombusazwe wonke zinjalo.

Ukulondoloza isimo ezokwenzela yokwanda ukukhula ukuze 4-4.5% ngo 2016-2017. kusukela cishe zero e 2015-2016, lapho imithombo zisetshenziselwa zokwehlisa imali eshodayo, ukukhokhwa izibopho ezivelele futhi kwethulwa amaphrojekthi okwesikhashana lomkhakha womphakathi. Nokho, ngaphansi kwezimo lapho inani uwoyela kuyehla, kuyanda uyephuza esikhathini esifushane naphakathi ezingeni okuzokwenza ukwandisa ubungako abangasebenzi. Njalo ibhalansi sangaphakathi umbuso wezombusazwe izimali ukuze kuzuze imigomo lesifunda amasu ngezithukuthuku yangaphakathi kwezomnotho, futhi lokhu kuyoba nemiphumela emibi yokukhula.

Inqubomgomo wezinguquko

Ngokwenhlolo-samuntu a kwekuhlela kabusha emikhulu yesibili, ukuxegiswa umnotho kanye nokulungisa ekuqaleni we Ukuhlanekezelwa kwesakhiwo eyayiyoholela ukusimama komnotho, ngisho ukuqhutshwa elingaphansi kuka-kulindeleke kusukela ukudayiswa amandla, kanye ukwanda oluqinile esimaphakathi futhi eside. lwekutfutfukisa okunjalo ngeke kugcine ngokuthuthukisa ikhono kwezinhlekelele abhekana nazo Iran. Amafutha baba eshibhile, kanye nentengo yayo - okuncane. Impumelelo lelisu kuzoncika Ushintsho ibhalansi yangaphakathi zezombusazwe kwamandla kusukela abasekeli umyalo umnotho lomkhakha womphakathi ukuba bamasheya emakethe ngamakhasimende. Okuhlangenwe nakho kuye kwabonisa ukuthi ukuvezwa kwesikhathi eside emakethe, kukodwa, kuyasiza ukwakha shift ezidingekayo.

I simo sesithathu, nakuba kwezombusazwe okungenani elimazayo, ngokushesha bangene kukho kuqala. Izinyathelo ukubhekana nezindaba kwezombusazwe lesifanele ezifana isabelomali ukuhlanganisa izimo abahola kancane futhi buthakathaka izithiyo umsebenzi ezinkampanini ezizimele ingase ukunqanda ukunganeliseki isimo kumnotho wasekhaya okwesikhashana. Ukungaqiniseki nokuba lokuncintisana kwalo amandla ezombusazwe, okuyinto sizothinta ukusatshalaliswa izimali uwoyela, kuyoba akuzuzisi.

Iran: uwoyela zimali angaphandle

Uma Iran uzoyeka ku inguqulo yokuqala kwenqubomgomo, US kuyodingeka ukuba amnike umyalezo ocacile wokuthi uyonikwa ubudlova lesifunda ukumelana eyizingqabavu evela e-US esifundeni. Ngaphezu kwalokho, uma abadlali omkhulu ziyophoqeleka aphume utshalomali ngqo emkhakheni kawoyela yezwe, kungase kube usizo ukuhlela ukukholisa iziphathimandla ukuguqula isu layo kumuntu ezanele letinyenti macondzana izinkinga emnothweni wakuleli futhi silondoloze inqubomgomo angaphandle olinganiselayo.

Ukuze ukhuthaze Iran kokuhlukile wesibili, i-United States kanye nezinhlangano zamazwe ngamazwe kufanele ukusekela indlela enjalo yokuhlaziya isimo. Ukubambisana namanye amazwe angomakhelwane uwoyela-timbiwa izonikeza intengo ezinzile futhi ubhekane namaqiniso ezweni uwoyela, ukubuyisela nawubuka bendabuko, ekusizeni ukuthumela Islamic Republic ukuqhuba inqubomgomo angaphandle lesifunda nokubambisana nokubambisana. Ukwandisa nawubuka nge eziphethe imakethe yomhlaba wonke futhi sandise inflow capital angaphandle kuzothuthukisa Iran ukuphishekela umgomo kancane impikiswano ezingeni lendawo, kanjalo sinezele ukuzinza esifundeni.

Endabeni le okufana wesithathu abathintekayo zendawo nezomhlaba wonke kungase kudingeke sithathe isinyathelo ukuze ibenze uhulumeni ukuba uhlangothi kwezombusazwe ngaphezulu asebenzayo. Ikakhulukazi, buthakathaka imikhawulo ukuhwebelana kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali ukubambisana alikho wemboni uwoyela kungenzeka ngenxa yenqubomgomo kwekuhlela kabusha kwangaphakathi. Enye indlela ukuthi sifake ingcindezi ku-Iran - zeqhwa uwoyela abakhiqizi ezinkulu ukusekela amanani - kungaba nikhuthaze izinguquko zomgomo ngokugqamile.

isinqumo esifanele

Bonke abahilelekile kule Dynamics zesifunda, unesithakazelo, ukusunduza Iran kukhethwa Kwesesibili nokuziphatha imigomo yezomnotho ezifanele guqula kwesakhiwo. Ekuhlukanisweni izinqumo nokukhuphula indima emakethe kwezinsizakusebenza ukwabiwa, kanye ukwehla indima engxenyeni kahulumeni, kuyadingeka. Lezi izinyathelo laba kanjani nesandla ekukhuleni, ukwandisa amathuba emisebenzi, kanye nokwesekwa ukuhlanganiswa Iran ku umnotho kwesifunda futhi izwe. Lokhu kuzokwandisa ukwandisa bezikhali ingxenye lolingene umphakathi ukuthi uye wakhetha Rouhani ngo-2013 futhi won ukhetho yamuva ePhalamende.

The main ukuhweba abalingani-United States ukusekela zimali bomhlaba wonke kanye nemave credit izikhungo, ungadlala kule nqubo indima ebalulekile. Nakuba amabutho yangaphakathi uzokubusa empikiswaneni ephansi kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe, ukugxila izimali uwoyela, amabutho angaphandle kungaba nomthelela isiqondiso zokwabiwa kwezinsiza kusebenza kanye ukusiza isimo ukufeza injongo esikabili.

Endaweni lapho kunendingeko enkulu khona ukutshalwa kwezimali angaphandle ukuze uqhubeke e-Iran - imisebenzi uwoyela nasekuthuthukisweni kwezobuchwepheshe okusezingeni eliphezulu kweminye imikhakha kudingeka ukubhekana ezikhulayo abangasebenzi ngaphezulu abafundile intsha. Esikhathini isithakazelo zimali angaphandle ukuba balondoloze izinqubomgomo emakethe ezifanele, ngokubambisana ne abatshala izimali, ngaphansi burdened nga ngalindelekile isiqondiso ngokweqile kanye nokulawula.

ukubambisana kwamazwe omhlaba

nezikhungo ezinkulu ezihlukene ezomnotho kanye zezimali kanye uhulumeni amazwe amakhulu zimali Ungadlala indima ebalulekile enqubeni kabusha. Izinhlangano ezifana IMF futhi iBhange Lomhlaba, angakwazi futhi kufanele leluleke iziphathimandla Iranian phezu yezinguquko kwezombangazwe kunesidingo. isikhundla yazo yayingavunyelwe nomthelela obalulekile omuhle ekwenzeni izinqumo yangasese utshalomali. ubulungu kwadlanga kakhulu ngawo-WTO, kanye ukufinyelela zezimali zomhlaba uzogcwalisa umjikelezo we kwezomnotho ukuxegiswa nokuhlanganiswa. umugqa esinamandla sokushintsha ibhalansi lesifunda amasu azodinga elide ukuthonya kwezinqumo mayelana nokwabiwa kwezinsiza kusebenza nokushintsha izinto eziza kuqala ekukhuleni yasekhaya.

Ezingeni lendawo zabo ukuze bakhonze izithakazelo Iran kuhlanganisa ukubambisana namanye abakhiqizi ukuze usimamise isimo emakethe uwoyela. nokudidiyela inqubomgomo Eduzane ne main abakhiqizi amandla Gulf ngeke kuphela ukuba ngcono amathemba kwezomnotho Iran, kodwa futhi ukunciphisa izinkingana esifundeni. Okwenzeka nokubambisana lolungakahleleki ne Saudi Arabia kanye nezinye abakhiqizi ezinkulu inqubomgomo uwoyela yesifunda ngo-1990 uyisibonelo esihle sokusilandela.