Kungani udedele intengo yamafutha na? amanani kawoyela Umhlaba

Ochwepheshe abaningi sebekholelwa edlule eminyakeni embalwa abayekanga ukuzibuza ukuthi kungani awe intengo kawoyela bese uhudula "bearish" inhliziyo esingakanani. Phakathi nale minyaka emihlanu edlule 4 kuwa global sabhalwa ngo emakethe uwoyela. "Bear" umjikelezo liphindwe izikhathi ezingu-14, futhi lokhu kusukela ngo-2000. Naphezu nokuntengantenga kwesimo, intengo umphongolo uhlale ngokuphepha emuva kuqalwa.

Ukubolekisa ngezindodla ukwehla kwamanani kawoyela ekhulwini 21

Ukuwa global kwamanani kawoyela emlandweni ukhona emakethe wakwazi ukulandelela umlando WITI izingcaphuno, okuyinto, njengoba 2011, esikhundleni Brent grade nophethiloli. Kukhona kuphela ezinhlanu:

1. 2001. Ngo-January 19, 2001 intengo ngamafutha kwakuwuphawu 32.2 zamaRandi. Ngo-November 5, 2001 intengo lehla 17.5 zamaRandi. Kwaphela izinyanga ezingu-10 intengo umphongolo lehla ngamaphesenti angu-48,5.

2. 2006. Julayi 14, 2006 intengo ngayinye emgqonyeni lamafutha kwaba 77 zamaRandi. Mhla ziyi-18 Ngenyanga kaMasingana ngonyaka ozayo, intengo ifinyelele ezingeni 50.5 zamaRandi. I kwentengo ka 34,5% sabhalwa izinyanga ezingu-6.

3. Summer 2008. Ngo-2008, July 3rd intengo umphongolo zazilingana 145.3 zamaRandi. Emva kwezinyanga ezingu 2.5, okungukuthi ku-16 Septhemba sabhalwa kanye phansi inkomba - ukuze 91.2 zamaRandi.

4. Autumn 2008. Ngu 22 September, ngemva kokuwa yamuva lamafutha esembula ezingeni 120.9 zamaRandi, futhi ngo-December 19 Ukuboshwa senzeke ngentengo 33.9 zamaRandi. Ngezinyanga ezintathu nje kuphela izindleko emgqonyeni uwoyela uwile ukuze 71,9%.

5. Spring 2011. April 29, 2011 intengo safinyelela 113, 93 zamaRandi umphongolo. Kodwa ngo-October 4 kushadi nsuku isivele waloba ongaphakeme entsha ku- $ 75.67. Ukuwa lwathatha izinyanga 5, intengo yehle ngo 33,58%.

Kungani udedele intengo kawoyela nokuthi isimo ngo-2015?

Amafutha oluyisisekelo zonke izinsiza amandla, elakhiwa cishe wonke umphakathi wesintu. ukucabanga emphakathini wanamuhla akunakwenzeka ngaphandle uphethiloli, iziketekete kanye diesel. Yingakho umbuzo wokuthi kungani intengo falling lamafutha, hhayi kancane ukhathazekile abahlaziyi kwezomnotho hhayi kuphela, kodwa abantu abaningi emhlabeni. Isimo unesithakazelo cishe njalo uchwepheshe kule ndaba.

Ngokukhethekile ikhokhelwa ukuze amanani kawoyela abakhileyo Russia. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi ukuwa izindleko fuel sekubangele ukwehla ruble. I dollar likhula ngokushesha, futhi ruble uye zigoqiwe nje. Abantu bayeke ukugcina imali yabo. Kuphakathi kokuthi ukutshala ukuthengwa zasendlini noma ngcono izimo zokuphila, noma izikweletu adlulisiwe currency angaphandle ngesilinganiso evumayo akuyona.

Naphezu izibikezelo ngonyaka odlule, amanani namuhla uwoyela ayehla. 2014 yaphela omunye nokuncipha izindleko emgqonyeni. I eside elindelwe mkhuba Ukubuyiselwa emuva akazange athathe indawo, isimo uhlala akucacile.

Analytics shazi

Umhlaba uwoyela intengo Brent (lokhu brand ingenye okufunwa kakhulu, nge ukuhamba wentengo kwenza ukuhlaziywa jikelele wemakethe) ngoJanuwari-February 2014 wema ngezithuba 107 zamadola umphongolo. Ekuqaleni kuka-Okthoba ukuthenga eyodwa emgqonyeni lamafutha kungaba $ 90. Lokhu kuyimbangela enkulu ngoba uvalo emazweni lapho umsebenzi kwezomnotho kusekelwe amandla nokuthengiswa. Ngalesi simo intengo akuyona uhlaliseke, futhi ngo-December 11 ishadi intengo ngesineke entsha ongaphakeme - 64 zamaRandi. Namuhla, abathengi abazimisele ukudela ukuze fuel akuyona ezingaphezu kuka 59,5 zamaRandi. It kuvela isimo ethakazelisa kakhulu. Isidingo fuel is ehlelekile yanda, futhi intengo uwa.

Izizathu ukuwa amanani emhlabeni - Inqubomgomo OPEC

Impendulo ecacile yalo mbuzo othi: "Kungani ewela intengo yamafutha na?" eziyinkinga. Isimo wakhiqizwa ngokuqhathanisa esifanayo zibe ziningana izici, okuyinto, ngokusho abahlaziyi kwezomnotho adaliwe eyayenziwe.

Kuyaphawuleka ushintshe intengo kawoyela umphongolo ngenxa yomgomo uthi - amalungu OPEC. Inani uwoyela ekhiqizwa kosuku ngalunye iyakhula. Ngo-August 2014 irekhodi senziwa. Umthamo uwoyela ongahluziwe zaba kwezigidi ezingu 30,5 imiphongolo ngelanga. Kule minyaka 5 izinyanga, lesi sibalo uhlala ezingeni ozinzile. Phambilini, inani lansuku zonke umkhiqizo kawoyela kwaba ezingu-30 imiphongolo. Ukwenyuka ivolumu ukukhiqizwa abayizigidi ezingu 0.5 eziyinkimbinkimbi nezinye izici kwakufanele nomthelela kwi ukuphahlazeka emakethe.

Libya, Saudi Arabia kanye Kuwait: umthelela emakethe uwoyela

Mayelana intengo oluzayo iconsi waxwayisa Venezuela, Iran 4 zithi ayingxenye OPEC. Ngokusho kochwepheshe, nokwanda okuphawulekayo izindleko emgqonyeni kungenzeka ngenkathi ekunciphiseni ivolumu ukukhiqizwa uphethiloli nge imiphongolo 415.000 kuphela. Ngenxa zokuchithwa zokunciphisa amavolumu ukukhiqizwa kusuka Saudi Arabia futhi Kuwait, isimo kwakhula. Amazwi uthi babe juqu, njengoba kuba Saudi Arabia ebangela imiphongolo engaba yizigidi ezingu-300 ezengeziwe lamafutha. Isimo lishise yokutakula eLibya kwezomnotho, okuyinto eye ekugcineni iphuma isimo zempi futhi zahlangana abadlali alawula emakethe uwoyela.

indima US kwetinhlavu amanani emakethe uwoyela

Ukuwa kwamanani kawoyela iye kubangelwa izenzo ingxenye Melika, njengoba insimu yalo impela inombolo enkulu imali yalesi amaminerali. Uhulumeni we State ukuze ugweme ukusweleka, wakhipha umthetho kuvinjelwa zokuthumela fuel eluhlaza. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, US bekulokhu engaphezu kweyishumi uhlala umthengi oyinhloko uwoyela emhlabeni. izindodla fuel, okuyinto wathenga up izwe, kusekelwa izindleko nophethiloli. Intengo kawoyela umphongolo uselokhu ezingeni eliphezulu.

Ukwehlisa intengo yemali uwoyela ongahluziwe ngo-September 2014 kwaqondana ukwanda ukukhiqizwa uphethiloli Melika. I nsuku zonke ukukhiqiza isilinganiso wema ngasemnyango imiphongolo abayizigidi ezingu 8.7. Ngokusho abahlaziyi, ezinyangeni ezizayo senyuke imiphongolo kwezigidi ezingu-9.5. Ngenxa yalokho, amanani kawoyela abawayo, umthengi oyinhloko ushiye enkundleni. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ekutholeni izintuba emithethweni, izinkampani ezinkulu baqala ukuthekelisa amafutha awo ukuze eziphethe imakethe yomhlaba wonke. Le ncwadi ka-uwoyela ongahluziwe wayengekho kuleli lizwe kusukela 1987.

Ovundlile "ukukhiqiza ngokwedlulele - ukusetshenziswa"

Ukuwa kwamanani kawoyela kwaba buhlungu wangempela umnotho isimo, abahlala ngezithukuthuku amandla. Daily petrol imiphongolo kwezigidi ezingu-92. Ngenxa yokuntuleka kukaphethiloli eziphethe imakethe yomhlaba wonke, inani lase ngempela eliphezulu. The Jump abukhali embonini yezimayini ezingeni imiphongolo kwezigidi ezingu 93,8 kwaholela ukukhiqiza ngokwedlulele. Umphumela isobala. Lapho izimpahla ezingaphezu kuka abathengi, intengo kuyehla ngokunciphisa isidingo. Izoqhubeka kuze ukukhiqizwa ngempumelelo uphethiloli, isimo iyovele ibhebhetheke.

kuyanda I dollar okukuthinte intengo kawoyela

Yokwehla kwezinga amanani kawoyela oye wathinta ngazo futhi waba ukwanda okukhulu kwezincwadi dollar. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi intengo umphongolo ibalwa ncamashi lwemali US. Ngezinye isimo engaguquki ukuze kwaneliswe isidingo iyona intengo kawoyela emakethe uhlala static. Uma sicabanga ukuthi dollar siyashintsha maqondana njalo kuya zezimali zomhlaba, isimo ngenhla echazwe emakethe - lokhu kusuka endaweni fantasy. Ngenxa yalokho, ekunyuseni amanani dollar kwenzeka iconsi kwamanani kawoyela, njengoba umgwaqo ivumela dollar ukuthenga umthamo ngaphezulu nophethiloli. I dollar falling kuzoholela ukwanda kwamanani kawoyela, njengoba umphongolo kuyodingeka bakhokhe ezingaphezu kuka lwemali US. Amanye amazwe senqabe ukuthengisa amafutha abo kumadola. ukuthenga inkampani kaphethiloli ukushintsha uhlobo lwemali, okubangela ukwanda ukunikezela kuvusa ukuwa kwalo. Ngezikhathi ezithile kwenzeka ukuthi amanani emhlabeni uwoyela dollar liphakama intengo ngesikhathi esifanayo. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi isimo kufanele kuhambisane nokuncipha ezingeni umsebenzi e-United States nokusebenza omuhle kwezomnotho.