Lapho intengo kawoyela bayovuka Isibikezelo

Ngo-1990, umkhakha Russian iye cishe ibhujisiwe, futhi Umthombo oyinhloko wemali ibhajethi kuleli zwe amafutha. Sekuyisikhathi eside Lokhu Ochwepheshe isimo ukubizwa ngokuthi 'inaliti uwoyela ", njengoba kuncike ukudayiswa izinto zokusetshenziswa kwenza sibe izisulu ezilula. Eminyakeni yamuva, sinalo ezinhle kwezwakala. Izinkinga ekukhuleni komnotho wezwe nezepolitiki kwaholela nokwehla kwamanani kawoyela, futhi ngamunye wethu nezimangaliso: lapho intengo kawoyela bayovuka?

Kangakanani emakethe

Okokuqala, ake ukuphendula umbuzo: Yini enquma intengo uphethiloli? Izindleko noma yimuphi umkhiqizo kuncike ukunikezela funa. Uma umkhiqizo liyadingeka ngesilinganiso esincane futhi senziwa ezinkulu, intengo yayo nakanjani iwe - kumelwe ngandlela-thile bachithe izimpahla. Uwoyela usetshenziselwa ekukhiqizeni, ngakho isidingo incike isimo jikelele emnothweni womhlaba jikelele. Eminyakeni yamuva nje kuye kwaba hhayi nje stop, futhi nokwehla izinga umkhakha, kudinga fuel kancane, futhi zinikeza hhayi kuphela kayiwanga - lakhula ngenxa yenqubomgomo Saudi Arabia. Supply idlula ngokufunwa, ngakho intengo uwile. Kunengqondo ukuthi impendulo yombuzo othi nini ukwanda intengo kawoyela, sisobala: lapho ukukhiqizwa luyokhula. Kodwa kunezinye izici.

Undercover umdlalo

Izindleko hydrocarbon kuncike inqubomgomo. Akuyona imfihlo ukuthi West ubhekile njalo umona izisetshenziswa omkhulu eRussia, futhi isikhathi eside emsebenzini isikhathi ku buthakathaka lizwe ukuze enze kube nokwenzeka ukuba usike ucezwana enzuzweni. Okubizwa ngokuthi "amafutha inaliti" iphuzu umpofu of Russian, ngakho West unqume siyishaye emakethe hydrocarbon. Yaba khona kanjani le uwoyela uphonsa? Ngaphambili, inombolo ukukhiqizwa yayo namanani abangu kulawulwa inhlangano ekhethekile - OPEC. Nokho, ngemva kweminyaka embalwa edlule, uhlelo "ephukile." Saudi Arabia ne-United States landa amavolumu yabo ukukhiqiza, funa liye landa. Umgomo ilula - wasithatha emakethe ngosizo ulahla. Emhlabeni nenkathi efanayo, Izinkinga zaqala nge emnothweni China nase-Ukraine, okwaholela iconsi funa. Manje impendulo yombuzo lapho intengo kawoyela bayovuka, enwetshiwe:

1. Lapho amazwe OPEC, uyavuma phakathi kwabo, bazi ukuthi ukuwa lezimpahla amanani ishayé wonke umuntu.
2. Lapho umnotho wembulunga yonke ngizoya ukwandisa (kunethemba ikakhulukazi eChina).

isitokwe umgembuli

On intengo kawoyela kuthinte okulindele. kudlule Zonke izinto zokusetshenziswa ngokusebenzisa le exchange stock futhi, njengoba izazi zikholelwa nentengo kuyinto subjective kakhulu. Uma ngokungazelelwe ukudlula amahemuhemu okuthi Saudi Arabia ozonquma ukusika ukukhiqizwa, futhi uma abadlali emakethe bakholwe bayakukuzwa, uqale wathenga inqwaba uwoyela ngenxa yethemba amanani aphezulu. Ngenxa lesi sidingo eyayenziwe wadala nezindleko iqala ngempela sikhule. Kodwa uma abadlali qiniseka ukuthi isimo ingakuthuthukisi, bona ungathanda ukungatholi izinto eziyingozi sinciphise ukuthenga izinto zokusetshenziswa. Njengoba ubona, "Ukube Nje" eziningi kakhulu ukusho ukuthi uwoyela uyovuka intengo, okuyinto intengo umhlahlo kufanele bacabangele isibalo esikhulu sezithunjwa izici.

Izinto ezintsha abazitholayo

Isayensi, futhi, ngeke bakwazi ukusho ukuthi uma intengo kawoyela uzovuka. Ososayensi musa ngisho ukuza ukuvumelana ngalokho izinqolobane zalo emhlabeni! Nokho, ngokuya ukuza izindaba mayelana okunye ukuthuthukiswa amandla: esetshenziswa kabanzi umoya futhi ilanga, ithuthukiswe izinqubo ukukhiqiza uphethiloli kuwoyela, futhi ugesi - kusuka ukubola udoti. Ngenkathi ezingeni yentuthuko kwalamatheknoloji uphansi, bayakwazi ukunikeza akukho kuka 20-30% of izidingo zamandla emhlabeni, kodwa izifundo zesayensi ungayeki. Lapho ososayensi uzokwenza intuthuko, nokuthi uyophinde enze kungenzeki ukusho.

Akufanele sibakhohlwe mayelana amandla enuzi. Ngo-2010, it salahlekelwa eqinile, kodwa emazweni ezinkulu ekwakheni enuzi izitshalo amandla sokuba njalo wakwazi ukunikeza amandla amaningi ezishibhile. Le nqubo ayisebenzi kakhulu, ngoba amandla enuzi kuyingozi kakhulu, kodwa umsebenzi ukuthola izinqumo okungenani okuyingozi abazenzi ngokuqhubekayo.

Yini okumele uyilindele kusuka abongameli

Ungathola ezihlukahlukene uchwepheshe imicabango yabantu, kodwa empeleni akekho ongasho ngokuqondile lapho intengo kawoyela uzovuka. Abaningi baye babonisa ukuthi ngo-2016, amanani ayo uyovuka ukuze 100, noma ngisho $ 150, kodwa kwathi ehlukile. Umhlaba ezombusazwe namuhla nje engalindelekile. Isibonelo elula: uma unswinyo, yalahla iRussia, labo ochwepheshe okufanayo ukuthi umnotho wezwe zibhidlike kwangena. Kodwa izinto zizokwenzeka ehlukile: I-Europe uye wahlupheka kakhulu, ezingeni layo nokuthengiswa wawa. Ukuze Russia, unswinyo babé umfutho ekuthuthukiseni umnotho. Namuhla sibona ushintsho ukwazi kuzinqubomgomo angaphandle kanye ezifuywayo emazweni amaningi. E-US naseYurophu eqinisweni kukhona umzabalazo phakathi izifundo ezimbili: e nokubambisana nayo eRussia kanye ngxabano wakhe. Umphumela walokhu umzabalazo kuyoba sobala lapho intengo kawoyela uzovuka.

Inkinga kwaphakade eMpumalanga Ephakathi

Ngo izindaba ezihlobene, iziteshi federal manje ezingavamile ukuzwa isimo e-Iran, okuyinto ngempela eziyinqaba, ngenxa ingcebo yalo futhi incike lapho intengo kawoyela uzovuka. Kusukela leli lizwe esanda aphakamisa ukuvimbela, okungukuthi, manje kungaba uthele amafutha emakethe. Yiqiniso, ukusimama umkhakha kuzothatha isikhathi esithile, plus akucaci yini isikhundla ngeke Iran. Ngakolunye uhlangothi - it is kancane kodwa ngokuqinisekile ekuthuthukiseni isimo eSyria. Kuyaziwa ukuthi abashokobezi ukukhuthalele ngidayisa nge izinto zokusetshenziswa, kakhulu ngendawo intengo, njengoba lo msebenzi emthethweni. Kuncike ekutheni Iran ozonquma ukusekela inhlangano Russian futhi uvinjelwe LIH uyabhujiswa, kungashiwo ukuthi esikhathini lapho intengo kawoyela bayovuka $ 80, isiseduze.

Inqubomgomo Russia

Kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi imizamo eminingi Western ukuba buthaka Russia abanye baquleka ngenxa yokuziphatha nokubhala soMthetho woHulumeni Russian. Ngokuya amanani impahla eluhlaza iwe, sithole izimakethe ezintsha, baye kakhulu elala emazweni aseMpumalanga, futhi abanye ngcono, Nokho hhayi amazwe ezibaluleke kakhulu European. Coalition lamazwe ase-Asia, ezazihlanganisa Russia, kancane kancane wamqinisa futhi mhlawumbe esikhathini esizayo esiseduze kuyoba bakwazi ukumelana West. Emaqaqasini iyini inkambiso yezwe lethu eshintsha kakhulu, kodwa mancane. Kukhona ukwanda okukhulu kwezolimo, umsebenzi uyaqhubeka ukusekela kwezamabhizinisi, kodwa utshalomali okuphawulekayo umkhakha esindayo futhi uwoyela, okuyinto wayedla semali impahla eluhlaza is hhayi waphawula. Noma kunjalo, sonke, emnothweni Russian iba uzinze, okuyoholela, uma kungekhona ukuthi ukwanda hydrocarbon amanani ke okungenani ukunciphisa ukuncika kwabo.

Zama kucagela

Yini okudingeka uyenze ukuze amanani kawoyela anda? Yebo, nje uqhubeke Yiqiniso wabeka namuhla. Mhlawumbe singasho ukuthi uma amazwe aseNtshonalanga Ungabi nombono izinqumo ezithile ezingalindelekile zokuzilimaza, izindleko amafutha bayoqhubeka bekhula, nakuba ayengafiki ngamanani aphezulu. Uzenzela:

1. Umnotho Saudi Arabia sika is kakhulu ehlaselwe amanani zisezintsha.
2. Iran neSiriya, kungenzeka ohlangothini Russia, njengoba ngaphambilini West wabaholela ukuncipha.
3. amazwe aseYurophu futhi basafuna izindlela ukuba unqobe lo ezibucayi kanye ukwakha umnotho.
4. China ubelokhu idume "izimangaliso kwezomnotho" yalo, plus yena uzisusile imingcele sokuzalwa kwezingane. It kungalindeleka ukuthi ukukhula labantu, uma kungekhona ukukhulisa umnotho wezwe, okungenani-ke ungayeki ukuba liwele ngisho aphansi.
5. Isizinda samafutha oluthambile bekulokhu inkampani ezingabazisayo e-USA, kanye esisibona namuhla, njengoba injalo, uwela.
6. Emazweni ase-Asia aseqalile nokubambisana asebenzayo futhi ibheka izindlela zokuhlala ngaphandle ukusetshenziswa dollar.
7. Umnotho Russian sihlangabezane reorientation, nakuba namanje ababuthakathaka, umkhakha ukukhanya kanye nezolimo.
8. Alternative amandla nakuba bengakwazi ukuhlangabezana ngokugcwele nezidingo embonini global.

Nokho, mhlawumbe, isidingo sokuthi ucabange ngalokho okufanele ukwenze ukuze uwoyela wenyuka, futhi kanjani ukuqeda le "uwoyela inaliti". Kungakhathaliseki izibikezelo kanye intengo izinto zokusetshenziswa, ukuncika izohlala ukwenza umnotho wethu buthaka nabangaqinile bakuhlanekezela, ngakho into esemqoka namuhla - hhayi ngamafutha, bonke-round ukuthuthukiswa umkhakha nezolimo.