Stagflation - kuyini? Izici nezici stagflation

Ngakho, sicabanga welithi "stagflation." Kuyini lokhu? Ngakho ngokuthi yesimo sezomnotho, lapho ukwehla futhi yokujama tsi zokukhiqiza ephelezelwa ekuphumeni okubangelwa ukusweleka komsebenzi kanye kuyanda njalo amanani - nokwehla kwamandla emali. Okungukuthi, abangabantwana eside ichaza izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali ngokumelene okwenza yekuma ndzawonye. Ngamanye amazwi, stagflation ngokuthi ifomu indolent ka tetemnotfo. Ziyini izimbangela eziyinhloko zalokhu yale nqubo kukhona izinyathelo anti-Inkinga, esizolokhu inqubomgomo isimo futhi monopolies, ngawo ezingeni lelisetulu amanani ngezikhathi zeziyaluyalu.

Leli gama livame ukusetshenziswa namuhla Macroeconomics yesimanje. Lesi simo esiyingqayizivele sibangelwa entsha ubonakele hhayi kudala ngenxa ukuthuthukiswa cyclical yomnotho kazwelonke kanye kumiswa izinhlobo ezintsha zokukhiqiza kabusha capital.

Inchazelo

Umqondo stagflation kwaqala ukubikwa ngawo-1965 e-UK. Kuze kube yileso sikhathi, ngokuvumelana nesimo sokwehla komnotho ngaso sonke isikhathi sihambisana ukwehla kwamanani, kodwa, kusukela ngo-1960, emazweni ahlukahlukene, kunendlela reverse, eye yabizwa abanye ngokuthi stagflation. Kuyini futhi yiziphi izimbangela izinqubo ezinjalo, Ososayensi abaningi bathi zavelaphi ngezindlela ezahlukene. Ezinye izinto okungenzeka zihlanganisa lezi ezilandelayo:

1. Amandla ezihluzekile ngesikhathi sezinhlekelele.
2. Izindleko eziphezulu zokuthola izidingo izimpahla ngemikhumbi ngezikhathi zeziyaluyalu.
3. imisebenzi State ngenhloso yokwenza ngcono isimo somnotho wezwe lonke.
4. Jikelele kwembulunga yonke komnotho kanye nokuqedwa umumo okhululekile.

izibonelo stagflation

Eminyakeni 1960-1980 ka stagflation ebonwe Emazweni amaningi athuthukile eNtshonalanga. Kunezibonelo eziningi, kodwa esimnandi kakhulu Russia kwaba isibonelo 1991-1996 sika. Kwakuphakathi nalesi sikhathi izwe wazibonela okusezingeni eliphezulu izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali kanye nokwehla ukulisa GDP. Ngokwesibonelo, kanye nokwehla kwezomnotho e-United States ngo-1970. Nakuba izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali ezweni zaba 5.5-6%, okuyinto, isimiso, futhi bakhomba stagflation.

izimpawu stagflation

Mayelana stagflation kohlelo kwezomnotho kungaba liyokwahlulelwa nalezi zidingo ezilandelayo: ukwanda abangasebenzi, isimo ocindezelekile emnothweni, izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali izinqubo kuleli zwe kanye ukwehla kwamandla kazwelonke e ezimakethe zomhlaba. Leli fomu entsha esibucayi emnothweni, lapho izimali sabantu awunawo amandla wokuthenga ezingeni eliphansi, kodwa intengo Kancani-kancani ikhula.

Stagflation libhekene zonke lezi zimpawu, futhi konke okuhle onikezwe isimo somnotho e-Russia - ruble encishisiwe ezingeni umsebenzi futhi ezingeni eliphansi, kukhona ukwehla jikelele emnothweni. Kungenxa yalesi sizathu, osomnotho ekushoyo Amathuba stagflation eRussia. Yiqiniso, abahlaziyi bakholelwa ukuthi izinqubo ezinjalo sele akhona ku ukuwohloka komnotho wamazwe amaningi athuthukile kunjalo, kodwa-ke Akunakwenzeka ukuthi nenduduzo. Lo mkhuba stagflation, ukuthi kuyini, noma kunalokho, hhayi okwamanje wafunda ngokugcwele yi zezomnotho. Kukholakala ukuthi esifuze komnotho kuyaphela ngokukhulu ukushesha zenzeka. Kodwa into eyodwa abahlaziyi uyavuma: stagflation kuhilelani imiphumela engemihle kuphela.

Yiziphi ngemiphumela stagflation

Stagflation, njengoba sekushiwo, inomphumela omubi emnothweni. imiphumela Ezazimzungezile - iyona ukwehla komnotho ukuvela crisis acute, ezifana nokuncipha ezingeni nokuvikeleka izakhamuzi, ukungasebenzi kanye sengozini social amaqembu athile abantu, ukwehla GDP kanye nekwehla uhlelo lwezimali kanye credit.

Phillips ijika

Ngenxa imodeli elula Keynesian komnotho kungaba izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali noma ukungabi khona komsebenzi. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, le emibili ayikwazi kwenzeke inqubo, kodwa okusekelwe izifundo enokwehla olwenziwa e-yalolucwaningo 50-60., Zezomnotho ziye ukuqinisekisile ukuthi ubuhlobo obunjalo bungekho. Stagflation futhi Phillips ijika ukumaka lobudlelwano ezinzile futhi esivikelekile phakathi wenzuzo uma elahlekelwe umsebenzi.

Ubudlelwano phakathi kwalezi nemingcele ezimbili inhlukanozigaba, ngakho kuthathwa ngokuthi kukhona okunye, futhi ubuhlobo phakathi kwabo. Uma ijika Phillips kuzolungiswa endaweni eyodwa, bese abantu, belinganisa isimo somnotho, ngeke kudingeke ukuba anqume ukuthi kungcono ukusebenzisa ukuthuthukisa isimo - amandla noma inqubomgomo eqine yentela.

Indlela yokugwema stagflation

Ngokwesiko, ukuze usimamise isimo kule izinyathelo umnotho isicelo kukhawulwe kuphela ukuhanjiswa funa jikelele, okuyilokho, eqinisweni, akuphazamisi ukungalingani etimakethe kanye uhlelo yokubuswa emakethe. Kulokhu, izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali eqala ukwenyuka ngaphambili kuka osekuzuziwe ukusebenza okugcwele. Ngokwesibonelo, manipulation funa aggregate ngokusebenzisa imali kazwelonke izinyathelo ezaholela kuphela predetermined ukufuduka umnotho Phillips ijika.

Ingabe stagflation eRussia

Ngenxa abukhali ukwehla of the ruble umphakathi uchwepheshe ngokwethukela okwenza izibikezelo lifiphele. Ochwepheshe bathi ukuwa kwakungesona ngisho nasezikhathini zenhlekelele zezimali zomhlaba. Ngakho, kuye kwasikiselwa ukuthi iRussia ebhekene stagflation. Kuyini futhi lokho ongaya umnotho, sixoxisane kakade. Akukho kuhle isimo somnotho, Russia akusho ibe stagflation ihlanganisa ukwehla kanyekanye komnotho ukwehla kwamandla emali.

Ngokwe-umhlaziyi

Ingabe stagflation eRussia? Kuyini, uma abaseRussia ukuthola? Noma ingabe nokucabanga elilandelayo kumnotho wakuleli, kwamehlisa futhi kungafaneleki? Ngakho, uma ukholwa ukuthi izimangalo weSikhungo Higher School zezomnotho ke Russia maduze ukubhekana nale nkinga edabukisayo. Isibikezelo sezulu sezinsuku esidumazayo analytics wayo ochwepheshe ukuchaza kanje. inqubo leyehlukehlukene lapho omunye amaqembu ukunquma ekuncipheni umsebenzi ezimbonini - Njengoba is, stagflation ezaziwayo.

Bukhona na ubufakazi bokobana lokhu kuncipha kwesikhathi sokuphila? Uma ukhumbule Imiphumela ngonyaka odlule, Russian evala nesilinganiso sokukhula komnotho at 1.3%. Emhlanganweni wokugcina Economic Council Russian uMongameli Putin V. okukhulunywa yokuthi ambalwa amazwe emhlabeni show kukhula kwe-GDP. Futhi abanye baye baphawula Iconsi le nkomba. Ukuze uqhathanise, ushintsho GDP-Italy, lapho lehla ngamaphesenti 1.9%, futhi sakhula ngo% 0.2 kuphela eFrance. Ngakho-ke, singaphetha ngokuthi izibikezelo izazi 'kukhona ungrounded, futhi akukubi kangako nge emnothweni yeRussia, lapho uzama ukubonisa. Kodwa ungakhohlwa ukuthi ngonyaka odlule, ngonyaka ka-2012, i-Russia sika ukukhula komnotho safinyelela 3.4%.

stagflation phesheya uthi ukwanda okusheshayo e amanani kuleli lizwe. Futhi eqinisweni, ngokusho izibalo, eRussia, amanani umthengi rose ngo-6.5% onyakeni odlule. Ukuze uqhathanise: ku-EU Bavuka ngo-% 1 kuphela. Ikakhulukazi, ukwanda okunamandla amanani eziboniswe iqembu lomkhiqizo ukudla - by 6.2%. Uma siphinda ukuqhathanisa lesi sibalo nge idatha ku-European Union, lapho sakhula ngo-1.4% kuphela.

Yeka indlela izibalo ngo-2014

Amanani imikhiqizo ukudla laqhubeka landa kulo nyaka. Ngokusho kochwepheshe, ukukhula kwabo kuzobonakala kakhulu, ikakhulukazi uma ukwanda intengo imifino, izithelo, avalele nenhlanzi imikhiqizo utshwala kanye nezinsizakalo emphakathini. Ngokwenhlolo-izibikezelo ongenayo injabulo enjalo, kungenzeka ukuthi izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali kuleli ngonyaka angavuka 6%, okungukuthi, kuyoba 1.5% ephakeme kunaleyo index, okuyinto esimisiwe Central Bank.

Kungenzeka, le ruble ngeke iwohloka kancane kancane ngisho isikhathi eside. Lokhu kungenxa izici eziningi ezifana ekunciphiseni ukungena, yokujama tsi embonini yokukhiqiza, ukushoda lwemali kuleli zwe. Yonke enye into, wanezela, futhi ukuntengantenga geopolitical. Esikhathini-HSE waphawula ukuthi ukuze ukushintsha lesi simo, kubalulekile ukuhlinzeka ukwehla ezijulile lwemali.

Kufanele sinake esinye isici esibalulekile stagflation, okungukuthi, izinga lokuntuleka kwemisebenzi kuleli zwe. Okusanda, uhulumeni ngeqholo wawuthi Izinga lokungasebenzi eRussia eminyakeni eyishumi edlule laliphansi kunawo. Futhi lokhu ngempela kunjalo. Ngo-2013, lizinga lalabamnyama labangasebenti kwaba mayelana 5.5%. Kodwa umnotho eRussia siyehla ekukhuleni kwayo, ngakho-ke, kuyinto elindelekile ukuba ukuthi kuyoba abangasebenzi ngaphezulu. It is afakwa ukuthi ekupheleni 2014 izinga lokungasebenzi ingaphindwa izikhathi ezingaphezu 6%. Noma kunjalo, ukwanda okusheshayo le nkomba is akulindelekile.