NPV - kuyini? NPV: ifomula. NPV yephrojekthi utshalomali

Ngempumelelo izinqubo utshalomali sinendima ebalulekile ekuthuthukiseni umnotho, ukwenyusa izinga lokuncintisana yayo. Inkinga yokwenza kwabo uhlamvu ashukumisayo futhi okungezona okunye lubalulekile kakhulu Russia yesimanje. Ngosizo kubo lifinyelele izinga entsha ye izindlela zokukhiqiza, okwandisa umthamo yayo, ukuthuthukiswa ubuchwepheshe ezintsha.

ukuthi utshalomali timu langempela Abantu BaseRussia? Mhlawumbe impendulo yalo mbuzo ulwazi ka Rosstat ngonyaka ka 2013 zibonisa ukuthi ukugeleza yonyaka kokutshalwa angangeni emnothweni wezwe, uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule, kwenyuke ngo-40%. Ngokuvamile, anqwabelene dolobha angaphandle emnothweni Russian ekupheleni konyaka odlule zaba 384,1 bhiliyoni aseMelika. Iningi ukutshalwa (38%) bakule mboni yokukhiqiza. 18% umthamo izimali ukuhweba kanye nokulungisa, cishe amaningi (17%) - embonini yezimayini.

Ngokwezibalo, kusukela 2012, abahlaziyi kwezomnotho sinqume ukuthi iRussia lifaka lesithupha emhlabeni ngokuya imali elikhangayo futhi ubuye umholi phakathi CIS amazwe kule inkomba. Futhi ngo-2012, angaphandle utshalomali ngqo emakethe Russian embozwe izinto ezinkulu 128. Dynamics inqubo kusobala. Kakade ngo-2013, ngokuvumelana Rosstat, kuphela ivolumu ukutshalwa kwezimali angaphandle ngqo emnothweni Russian kukhuphuke ngo-10.1% wafinyelela inani $ 170,18 bhiliyoni.

Akungabazeki ukuthi zonke lezi zimali ezifakiwe zenziwa ngokukhalipha. Abatshalizimali kusengaphambili, ngaphambi kokuba utshale imali yabo, nakanjani, ukuhlola ukukhanga iphrojekthi okudayiswayo, ngokwezimali, ngobuchwepheshe nangokwenhlalo.

elikhangayo utshalomali

Izibalo ezingenhla eziyinkokhelo zihlanganisa kanye 'technical "ohlangothini. Le nqubo ibizwa ngokujulile ukubuqonda ngezimiso owaziwa ukuthi isilinganiso kumelwe kuqala babe kasikhombisa. Ingqikithi elikhangayo utshalomali njengoba isigaba kwezomnotho predetermined izinzuzo zimali ngqo ngaphambi kokuba utshale dolobha yayo inkampani ethile noma iphrojekthi. Lapho ukutshala imali, sokunaka solvency nokuzinza sezimali zokuqala e abasemazingeni ahlukahlukene entuthuko batjala izimali zakhe. Ngakho-ke, ukwakheka investimenti ngokwayo, kanye notshwala ayo kufanele abe yena, ubuhle.

Lokhu ingatholakala uma inkampani okwenza izimali utshalomali ezinjalo, ngendlela ehlelekile lucwaningo ekuphathweni kwezimali zokuqala. Lesi sakamuva:

• ukuhlaziywa nizithibe yemigomo yesikhathi eside sokuthuthuka;
• ekwakheni kwabo inqubomgomo utshalomali ezanele;
• ukuqaliswa nokuhambisana ukulawula edingekayo ngesikhathi njalo ukubaluleka ukulungiswa correlative roomates nge nezimo zezimakethe.

Ngatadisha ivolumu yangaphambilini ye zokuqala utshalomali igunya ucabangela ukuthi kungenzeka ukunciphisa izindleko zokuqhuba ibhizinisi lakhe, okwandisa izinga kwezobuchwepheshe zokukhiqiza.

Ngo ukwakheka isu ngempela kunakwe izimo zomthetho ukuze ukusetshenziswa kwalesi sitatimende, ukuhlola ezingeni inkohlakalo ingxenye umnotho, wenza izimo sezulu.

elikhangayo utshalomali Ukuhlolwa Izindlela

Basuke ihlukaniswe static kanye ashukumisayo. Uma usebenzisa izindlela static kungaba lula - izindleko zemali yokuqhuba ibhizinisi kuyinto njalo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Ngempumelelo kunqunywa static utshalomali payback isikhathi kanye Coefficient kahle. Nokho, ukufunda kwawo esikoleni abanjalo bangabaphostoli ukusetshenziswa kancane in umkhuba.

Ngo zomnotho ukuhlola utshalomali ziba mandla ekusebenziseni ukusebenza ashukumisayo. Isihloko lesi sihloko kuyoba omunye wabo - inani lamanje (NPV, eyaziwa nangokuthi RR). Kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi ngaphezu lisebenzisa imingcele ashukumisayo ezifana:

• isilinganiso sangaphakathi senzuzo (IRR);
• utshalomali inzuzo (PI);
• ehlisiwe payback inkathi investimenti (DPP).

Noma kunjalo, phakathi izinkomba oshiwo ngenhla, empeleni endaweni emaphakathi ukuhlala inani lamanje. Mhlawumbe isizathu siwukuthi le ndlela ikuvumela ukuba ezihlobene imbangela nemphumela - utshalomali nge isamba nokuphuma kwemali eyenziwe kubo. Limbozwe a impendulo okuqukethwe kuye kwaholela yokuthi indinganiso yokunquma utshalomali ibonwa NPV. Lesi sibalo namanje oyithatha kalula? Le mibuzo kuzoxoxwa ngayo esihlokweni kanye.

Ifomula eliyisisekelo sokunquma NPV

Inani lamanje ukubizwa ngokuthi ehlisiwe kwemali noma DCF-izindlela. umqondo wayo kwezomnotho esekelwe Ukuqhathanisa utshalomali kubiza IC futhi olungisiwe nokuphuma kwemali esikhathini esizayo. Lilonke nje NPV ibalwa kanje (bheka ifomula 1.): NPV = PV - Io, lapho:

• PV - ukubaluleka samanje kwemali;
• Io - utshalomali kokuqala.

Okungenhla ifomula lula NPV-imibukiso imali engenayo.

Ifomula uyakucabangela Isaphulelo futhi yesikhathi esisodwa utshalomali

Yiqiniso, ifomula ngenhla (1) kufanele nzima, okungenani ukuze uyibonise e mshini discounting. Njengoba ukugeleza izimali ezibekelwe ngesikhathi discounting ke ngumuntu Coefficient r ekhethekile, okuyinto incike izindleko utshalomali. Discounting ipharamitha yangokwesiko ibangelwa isikhathi nesenzakalo of notshwala ehlukahlukene (bheka ifomula 2.), Kuphi:

• r - Isaphulelo;
• CF _t - izinkokhelo utshalomali phezu t iminyaka;
• n - isibalo izigaba iphrojekthi.

NPV-ifomula kufanele acabangele imali kushintshwe diskonotom (Coefficient r), kuchazwe abahlaziyi zimali ukuze iphrojekthi utshalomali ku-akhawunti ngesikhathi sangempela kanye inflow futhi outflow yemali.

Ngokusho inqubo ngenhla, nekusebenta isixhumanisi nemingcele okunamathiselwe kungenziwa emelelwa izibalo. Hlobo luni umthetho eveza ifomula ukuthi inquma okushiwo NPV? Yini le sibalo sikhombisa zimali uthola kwemali ngemva kokusebenza yephrojekthi utshalomali kubo futhi ayakhokhela izindleko wabhekisela kuwo (bheka ifomula 3.), Kuphi:

• CF _t - izinkokhelo utshalomali ngesikhathi t iminyaka;
• Io - utshalomali kokuqala;
• r - isaphulelo.

Inani lamanje (NPV-ifomula letinikwe lapha ngenhla) ibalwa njengoba umehluko phakathi Imininingwane cash namarisidi, actualized yiphuzu elithile ngesikhathi zobungozi futhi utshalomali kokuqala. Ngakho-ke, okuqukethwe kwayo kwezomnotho (okusho - inguqulo yamanje ye ifomula) - inzuzo etholwe zimali nge utshalomali eqinile olulodwa kokuqala, ie, value added yephrojekthi ...

Kulokhu sikhuluma umbandela NPV. Formula (3) - ezingaphezu kuka-dolobha yangempela zimali ithuluzi, cabangela amathuba utshalomali yabo ngokuya izinzuzo ezilandelayo. Nge imigomo zohlelo ngesikhathi samanje cash flow, kuba inkomba izinzuzo kuya zimali. Ukuhlaziywa kwemiphumela ukuthonywa ngempela esinqumweni sakhe: ukutshala noma asilahle.

Yini zimali amagugu negative NPV? Lokho msebenzi ukutshalwa akuzuzisi futhi ezingenanzuzo kuwo. It has isimo okuphambene nge NPV omuhle. Kulokhu, ukukhanga utshalomali yephrojekthi uphakeme, ngokufanele, ezifana inzuzo yebhizinisi utshalomali. Nokho, kungenzeka ukuthi lapho inani lamanje zero. Kuyinto ukwazi ukuthi kulezizimo investimenti wenza. Yini zimali a NPV? Nale utshalomali ngeke wandise ingxenye emakethe yayo. ke ngeke nilingenise inzuzo, kodwa njengobaba uyoqinisa isimo ibhizinisi.

Inani lamanje ngesikhathi isu multi-step utshalomali

amasu Investment Ushintsha kwezwe elisizungezile. Awu ngale ndaba wathi umbhali waseMelika odumile nosomabhizinisi Robert Kiyosaki ukuthi ingozi utshalomali akulona ngokwayo, kodwa ukungakwazi ukulawula ke. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, njalo progressiruschaya base impahla-technical sokuphoqa zimali hhayi umuntu-off, futhi ukutshalwa kwezimali gqwa. NPV yephrojekthi utshalomali kulokhu izonqunywa le ndlela elandelayo (3), lapho m - isibalo neminyaka utshalomali oyokwenziwa, mina - nokukhuphuka kwamanani ezimpahla koeffitsint.

ukusetshenziswa Engokoqobo Yezindaba ifomula

Kusobala ukuthi ukwenza iimbalo usebenzisa formula (4), ngaphandle kokusebenzisa amathuluzi asizayo, - kuba impela isikhathi. Ngakho-ke, lo mkhuba kubalwa RIO izinkomba basakaza sasivumela usebenzisa esungulwe ochwepheshe-spreadsheet (isibonelo, ukusebenza ngo-Excel). Akumangalisi ukuhlola NPV yephrojekthi utshalomali kufanele bacabangele ukusakaza amaningi kokutshalwa kwezimali. Zimali ihlaziya amasu athile ukuze ekugcineni ukuqonda le mibuzo emithathu:

• edinga utshalomali futhi bangaki izigaba;
• lapho ukuthola imithombo eyengeziwe ngezimali, evuma uma isidingo;
• Ingabe lidlule inani wesabelo forecasted izindleko ezihlobene ne-investimenti.

Indlela ejwayeleke kakhulu - cishe ukubala ukusebenza real yephrojekthi utshalomali - ukuchaza ngaye NPV 0 imingcele nge (NPV = 0). Ifomu tabular evumela zimali ngaphandle kokungena ezindlekweni isikhathi, ngaphandle kokuba wenziwa ochwepheshe, linanikhulu ngeso lengqondo amasu ahlukene futhi ngenxa yalokho ukhethe best for nekusebenta inqubo utshalomali.

Ukusebenzisa i-Excel ukucacisa NPV

Ngo umkhuba zimali ukukhiqiza ukubala izibikezelo NPV Excel? Isibonelo ukubala ezinjalo, sethula ngezansi. Methodical kokunikezela kungenzeka ekunqumeni nekusebenta inqubo investimenti ngokusekelwe umsebenzi ezikhethekile ihlanganiswe NPV (). Lona umsebenzi eziyinkimbinkimbi wekusebenta agumenti amaningi ifomula isici sokunquma inani lamanje. Sibonisa syntax ngoba lo msebenzi:

NPV = (r; Io; C4: C11), lapho (5) r - lesaphulelo; Io - utshalomali kokuqala
CF1: CF9 - iphrojekthi kwemali ngenxa nezikhathi 8.

Ngokuvamile, esekelwe utshalomali kokuqala ngo 2.0 mln. futhi okwalandela nokuphuma kwemali emabangeni ayisishiyagalolunye yephrojekthi utshalomali futhi 10% isaphulelo rate, inetha samanje ukubaluleka NPV lemali ayizinkulungwane 186,39. ukukuthinta. Dynamics of ukusebenza kwemali kungaba amelwe idayagramu elandelayo (bheka. UMdwebo 1).

Figure 1. notshwala imali yephrojekthi utshalomali

Ngakho, kumele kuphetfwe utshalomali nenzuzo kanye amathemba, kuboniswe kulesi sibonelo.

Uhlelo inani lamanje

Modern Investment Project (IP) kubhekwa namuhla ithiyori kwezomnotho ngesimo nesimiso eside capital ukutshalwa kwezimali. Ngesikhathi isinyathelo ngasinye, it libhekene imali ethile kanye nezindleko. Umthombo oyinhloko wemali iyona yokudayisa izimpahla kanye nezinsizakalo kuwumgomo oyinhloko ukutshalwa ezinjalo.

Ukwakha NPV-schedule, cabanga ukuziphatha lo msebenzi (okushiwo cash flow) kuncike agumenti - okuyisikhathi sokwenza ezihlukahlukene amagugu utshalomali NPV. Uma isibonelo ngenhla, ukuthi ngesikhathi isigaba saso lesishiyagalolunye sithola inani yangasese Inani lamanje 185,39 ayizinkulungwane. Deda., Bese nokukhawulela yona izigaba eziyisishiyagalombili (isibonelo, ukuthengisa ibhizinisi), sifika RR ayizinkulungwane 440,85. Deda. Umkhaya - sithola ukulahlekelwa (ama-ruble ayizigidi -72,31 ..), ayisithupha - ukulahlekelwa iba elibaluleke kakhulu (ama-ruble ayizigidi -503,36 ..), Five - (ruble -796,89 ayizinkulungwane ..), Four - ( ama-ruble ayizigidi -345.60), ezintathu - .. (ama-ruble ayizigidi -405.71), okunomkhawulo izigaba ezimbili - .. (ama-ruble ayizigidi -1,157.02) ... Lesi senzakalo sibonisa ukuthi NPV yephrojekthi ivame ukwandisa esikhathini eside. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, utshalomali inzuzo, ngakolunye - zimali esitebeleni ngeke uzuze mayelana isigaba saso lwesikhombisa (bheka umfanekiso 2.) Lapho.

Figure 2. Igrafu NPV

Ukukhetha izindlela zokutshala izimali iphrojekthi

Ngo umdwebo 2 ukuhlaziya Kutholwe ezimbili okunye kungenzeka zimali isu. Ingqikithi yabo engase iqondakale kakhulu ukumane, "Yini ukuba ukhethe -? inzuzo ezincane, kodwa ngokushesha, noma ngaphezulu, kodwa kamuva" Ebheka ishadi, i-NPV (inani lamanje) lithola okwesikhashana value elihle esigabeni sesine yephrojekthi utshalomali, kodwa kweyame utshalomali eside isu, thina baqalwa inzuzo eyaqinisa.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, siphawula ukuthi ukubaluleka NPV incike izinga isaphulelo.

Lokho uyakucabangela rate isaphulelo

Esinye sezakhi amafomula (3) futhi NPV (4) lapho iphrojekthi ibalwa kuchazwa iphesenti isaphulelo, okuthiwa izinga. Lokho kubonisa? Ngokuyinhloko, kulindeleke izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali rate. I umphakathi esimeme kuba 6-12%. Isho okuningi: rate isaphulelo incike Inkomba kwamandla emali. Khumbula Eqinisweni eyaziwa ngokuthi ezweni elinesidingo emali idlula 15%, ukutshalwa kwezimali babe ezingenanzuzo.

Thina nethuba usihlole practice (ngoba sinesibonelo esihle kokubala NPV usebenzisa Excel). Khumbula ukuthi Inkomba NPV ibalwa yithi ngesikhathi lesaphulelo 10% esigabeni lwesishiyagalolunye iphrojekthi izimali 186,39 ayizinkulungwane. Deda., Yikuphi ikhombisa inzuzo futhi isithakazelo zimali. Miselela Excel-hydrochloric ithebula lesaphulelo 15%. Lokho sikhombise NPV umsebenzi ()? Ukulahlekelwa (futhi lokho ekupheleni ekupheleni devyatietapnoy uhlelo lokutshalwa kwezimali!) Ukuze ayizinkulungwane 32,4. Ruble. Kungakhathaliseki zimali bavumelane project nge rate isaphulelo enjalo? Awa, akusinjalo.

Uma thina ezinqumela ukunciphisa Isaphulelo-8% ngaphambi ukubala NPV, isithombe zizoshintsha ukuba okuphambene: inani lamanje kuzokhulisa ukuba ama-ruble ayizigidi 296,08 ..

Ngakho, kukhona ukuboniswa yezinzuzo umnotho ozinzile nge lokwehla kwamandla emali liphansi okwesikhathi utshalomali yimpumelelo.

Umhlangano omkhulu kunayo yonke abatshalizimali Russian futhi NPV

Yini ebangela i-akhawunti ezinhle ngokuwina amasu yilabo abatshala izimali? Impendulo ilula - empumelelweni! Simelela sohlelo ngobukhulu Russian zimali abazimele ngonyaka odlule. Isikhundla kuqala kuhlala Yuri Milner, co-umnikazi Mail.ru Group, eyasungulwa DTS Isikhwama. Bachitha izimali ku-Facebook, i-Groupon Zygna ngempumelelo. Ubukhulu ukutshalwa kwakhona enele ezakha kakhulu ezweni lanamuhla. Mhlawumbe yingakho kuthatha isikhundla 35 kule simo global, okubizwa ngokuthi Midas ohlwini.

Eyesibili isikhundla - I-Victor Remsha aphinga ngo-2012, into brilliant ukudayisa 49,9% lwaqalwa inkonzo.

Isikhundla lwesithathu kuhlala leonid Boguslavsky, co-umnikazi izinkampani Inthanethi mayelana 29, kuhlanganise MegaMarket Ozon.ru. Njengoba ubona, ezifuywayo zimali ezintathu ngobukhulu yangasese ukutshala kwezobuchwepheshe Inthanethi, t. E. sphere zokukhiqiza okungezona izinto.

kungakhathaliseki lunye ezifana okungahleliwe? Usebenzisa amathuluzi sokunquma NPV, zama ukuthola impendulo. I zimali oshiwo ngenhla emandleni ubuchwepheshe Internet imininingwane emakethe ngeke ngokuzenzakalelayo ukungena kwimakethe yokuphehla nge isaphulelo ezincane, okwenza izinzuzo zabo.

isiphetho

Modern business plan ngokuya ukubuya ku izibalo ngokutshalwa kwezimali nokuthintana criticality ukushintsha okudlekayo manje kabanzi isebenzisa ukuhlaziywa eziseqophelweni ukusebenza, kuhlanganise ukuzimisela inani lamanje. Zimali, ukubaluleka okukhulu has kwencazelo nokusimama izinkomba okufana eziyisisekelo iphrojekthi utshalomali.

Versatility NPV kuyivumela ukuba sihlaziye izinguquko kwemigomo iphrojekthi utshalomali ngemali yayo zero. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kuyinto ehluke ngokuphelele ithuluzi zobuchwepheshe lwenteke for ezahlukene zabasebenzisi-spreadsheet ejwayelekile akhelwe ngaphakathi e imisebenzi yabo.

Kuyinto ethandwa kakhulu kangangokuthi ngisho othumele yokubala inthanethi ukunquma ke Internet okhuluma isiRashiya. Nokho, i-Excel okukuvumela izinketho ezengeziwe ukuze sihlaziye Isu lokutshala izimali.