Lapho enza isimo esibucayi Russia: izibikezelo

Isimo e-Russia siqukethe hhayi indlela engcono kakhulu. Naphezu ukusikhohlisa, nezindawo futhi kuthuthukiswe isimo, abahlaziyi kanye ochwepheshe kwezomnotho abayeki ukuba phikisana okusondelayo Igagasi elilandelayo crisis. Osomabhizinisi nabantu abavamile abahlala ukulindela lokuthuthukisa isimo esiphansi kanye isikhathi lapho isimo esibucayi uphela eRussia. Ngokusho uNgqongqoshe wezokuThuthukiswa koMnotho Alekseya Ulyukaeva, isimo ngeke ekulinganiseni ngo-2016. Uthi esikhundleni ukuntengantenga eside kuyofika komnotho eside elindelwe. Ngeshwa, le umbono olwabiwa akuwona neze ochwepheshe.

Waba yini lihlotshaniswa sinjalo eRussia ngo-2016?

Ulyukayev umhlahlo nabanye abaningana bathole ochwepheshe sendlela ngcono isimo kuleli zwe ngo-2016, has a ubuhlobo ngqo emakethe uwoyela ngamazwe. Kulinganiselwa wokulungiselela, ekupheleni 2015, ruble kufanele ngokuphelele aqinise isikhundla yayo phakathi kuyanda global intengo kawoyela. Izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali kufanele kuyehla kube ukubaluleka 2-2.5%. Ukuqina kulindeleke ngokuqondene ukwanda Kuhlelwe ukusetshenziswa kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali nemihlomulo. Okwamanje, ngokuvumelana noNgqongqoshe, uhulumeni waseRussia kuthatha izinyathelo ezisebenzayo ukuheha abatshalizimali angaphandle emikhulukazi embonini yezimoto. Ngokuqondene ukungeneli kwesabelo sezimali ngo-2015, yamemezela ukuthi kungase sibalo oluhambisana ruble 2.3 lamarandi theory. Eqinisweni, yonke into ibukeka ezahlukene, ukuthi, eqinisweni, ubeka enjalo ezizathwini ukuthi ayemakhulu amathemba ababenawo ahlaselwa.

"Inkinga eRussia uphela" - lesi sitatimende ephonsa ukungabaza ngeqiniso lokuthi isabelomali 2015 kanye kwangaphambilini uhlelo ngesabelo eminyakeni emithathu ezayo elele intengo kawoyela at $ 90 umphongolo. Namuhla, intengo kaphethiloli neze azifinyelelanga ezingeni zamadola 55. Kunokushoda kwezimali kusobala, ngakho-ke, futhi ngonyaka ozayo ezintathu isabelomali kusilela kuzokhulisa, okwenza malovozmozhnym okusheshayo sokunqoba crisis.

ukubukwa Nethemba Lokuhle isimo

Lapho enza obumbi eRussia, umnotho waqala ukuzwa ukwanda. It bekulokhu, ngoba nezinkinga esinazo, ngeshwa, akuyona into engajwayelekile. Ubungcono kuthiwa wazizwa cishe kuzo zonke izimboni, izakhamuzi ukukhulisa izinga lokuphila kwabo. Kodwa-ke ingaphambi kwesikhathi kakhulu namuhla. Izibikezelo abanethemba, kuyafaneleka labo bathi akunakwenzeka ukugwema untengantenga endleleni isinqumo isimiso sezomnotho enamandla. Inkinga - intuthuko ngokushesha ukuthuthukiswa kokumethemba. Ziyakwazi indlela yokuxazulula izingxabano. I ephansi uwela sezingenile kulelo zwe, ephumelela kakhudlwana uzoqhubeka uchuma.

Isifaniso nge 2008

Ngo-2015, izinto zihamba akafani kwaba ngo-1998 ngemva kokuwa ngokushesha ruble ngo-1998 izimpahla kwamanye amazwe baye ngenkuthalo sithathelwe indawo imikhiqizo zokukhiqiza yasekhaya. It is kuphela yavusa ukuthuthukiswa sangaphakathi isimo. Industrial production ezifuywayo usephendukele phambili ukuze Echoes isimo esivumayo kwaba nomphumela ngo-2000. Namuhla, naphezu kokuwa ruble, imboni yasekhaya kanye ukukhiqizwa ayicushiwe. Futhi ungakwazi ukubona ngokuphelele isimo okuphambene, esikhundleni ephakamisa. Uhulumeni akazange athathe izinyathelo ezisebenzayo ukuqeda izimo ngokuzenzakalelayo kusikisela lokho okufanele sikulindele esikhathini esizayo esiseduze kwesikhathi zesikhashana, ekupheleni crisis eRussia futhi nokuvela iqala, akuyona zinkulu.

ERussia namuhla indlela. Okufanele ukulindele?

Ukubheka ERussia namuhla, umuntu angabona ngokucacile ukuqaphela izingxenye olukhulunywa kulelo crisis:

• Ukuncipha abukhali kwezinga lemikhiqizo yezimboni.
• ukwehla of the ruble.
• Ihlekelele umkhakha yasebhange.

Kule kusobala ukuthi ukusho, abantu bayoba nini bomnotho eRussia, kusemasisha kakhulu. Akekho enikela nganoma iyiphi isiqinisekiso sokuthi izinkinga musa basakazekela kwezinye imikhakha. Abantu abaningi bahlobanisa Ukuwohloka umnotho kuphela izici zangaphandle, nakuba eqinisweni, ukukhiqizwa yezimboni wayesalokhu ulahla nomfutho 2012. Kwakuthinta ngalesi sikhathi, Ministry of Economic Development kuhlanganisa ezintathu ongakhetha sokuthuthukiswa izenzakalo eminye kuze 2030. Ngo-2015, omunye zingabuka ukuqaliswa inketho ezimbi kakhulu. Yesimanje Russian Federation akazange athathe indawo, injini kuphela kwentuthuko ukuthuthukiswa kanye nokudayiswa amandla, nokwehla komthwalo-GDP, ukusondela ukuba komnotho. Kuvele Eqinisweni ezithakazelisayo wukuthi izimo uhulumeni eza wayaziwa ngo-2013, lapho-ke, ngaphandle kokukhangisa, wathatha okufana lwesithathu omubi yentuthuko emnothweni kazwelonke.

Iziphi izinyathelo has uhulumeni nendlela kuyasiza esimweni esibucayi?

Ezimbalwa ochwepheshe esithathwayo ukuphendula kahle lapho isimo esibucayi eRussia. Lapho ngakho ngoba preconditions ngoba ukubonakala kwawo kukhona kakade Adalberto isikhathi eside. Ngakho, uhulumeni ngo-2013 waqala ngenkuthalo ubuyekeze amalayisense amabhange nezinhlangano zokuthenga ngesikweletu. Isinqumo ekupheleni 2014, ngemva ukusatshalaliswa kolwazi ngaye, kwaholela abukhali outflow capital. Abantu ngenkuthalo aqala ukuhoxa ezifakwa zabo, ukuthi kuphela zaba zimbi isimo futhi lokhu kwaholela ucabanga kwezikhungo eziningi zemali.

Inkinga futhi unswinyo

Ngemva 2014 unswinyo izimo esebenzisa. A kontrsanktsii yi Russian Federation futhi ukuwa kwamanani kawoyela emakethe izwe nullified cishe ngokuphelele imizamo ukubuyisela umnotho wezwe. Endaweni ehlukile, lapho-ke ungasho mayelana unswinyo eziye zaholela ekubeni ubone amanani ephakeme imikhiqizo. Ibhizinisi isibe engakwazi ukusebenza ngaphandle eziseceleni, okwaholela ekwenyukeni kwamanani ezingeni kungekho ephakamisa ngokuba isakhamuzi isilinganiso yezwe. funa Ukunciphisa kwaholela kuvalwe amabhizinisi. Tandem izici zangaphandle kanye langaphakathi eyabangela ukuncipha okukhulu emsebenzini ibhizinisi kanye nokwehla ezifunwayo zonke izingxenye. Kanjani futhi nini lenkinga Russia kusasekuseni ukuqagula ukuthi lokhu, ngoba yokutakula uzoqala kokukhulisa izindinganiso zokuphila zabantu.

Kuthi ababhula ngezinkanyezi uthi?

Yehlelwa udaba ngezihloko ezihlukene crisis nababhula ngezinkanyezi owaziwa. Pavel Globa sinxusa abantu ukuba wesabe ezenzakalelayo ku 2015. Naphezu izibikezelo okungekuhle, ngezinkanyezi igxile yokuthi euro ngeke ruble ezingaphezu kuka-100, kanye nokuqedwa ingqikithi isimo kuyokwenzeka kuphela 2017. Okunye esinikezwa inikeze impendulo yombuzo othi nini lenkinga Russia. izibikezelo Iningi ukuphakamisa lokhu kwakuyoba nomphumela omuhle ngoba isimo futhi okungekuhle eMelika nase-Ukraine, kuhlanganise nokuthi kuzokwenza Eqinisweni, akekho owaziyo.

Yikuphi zaholela ezinkingeni?

Ukusho ukuthi obumbi iphelile eRussia, kusemasisha kakhulu. Ukuze lokhu kwenzeke, kuyadingeka ukuba afeze ukuqedwa izimbangela umnyombo wenkinga. Lokhu kuyoba isinyathelo sokuqala maqondana isimo nenhlalakahle. Abaningi bathembele unswinyo ngu Melika naseYurophu, nakuba lokhu futhi akazange nethonya elibusa kwezimo. Wavele ufake ukonakaliswa isimo sezimakethe zohwebo kwezomnotho. Ukuncishiswa utshalomali non-ohlala nokukhulisa umkhakha wezokukhiqiza saba sibi ukuncintisana imikhiqizo basekhaya ezimakethe zomhlaba jikelele. I inflow capital akusho alulame kuze lizwe ziyawohloka. Qedela ukuncika impahla yokuhweba awamkhathazanga emnothweni ngenxa ukuwa kwamanani jikelele uwoyela, ukubuyiselwa okuyinto ezingeni odlule kuze abukho ubufakazi. Ukuwa kwe-ruble baba bukhulu kakhulu kunangaphambili yayo mlando futhi nokuphakamisa parallel CBR zenzalo kudale izinkinga sabantu. Wanezela uphalafini emlilweni of ukungqubuzana Russia nase-Ukraine. Akekho nomnyombo inkinga kulesigaba ukuthuthukiswa Russia kungenakususwa ngokuphelele, onikeza ngezizathu eziningana ezingathi sína ukuba wahlulele isikhathi eside ngaphambi kokuphela nobukhulu bale nkinga.

Kwenzekani ngokulandelayo?

Development noma ukwehla kwezomnotho Inkinga elaseRussia akuyi ngetintfo unswinyo entsha, okungase kuholele ekulahlekelweni ukulawula ibhizinisi labo ukuze dolobha angaphandle. isimo wokuvimbela akunakugwenywa. Umphumela izenzakalo kuyoba obonakalayo ekupheleni March 2015, futhi kuze kube isimo sibuyela static, nosomabhizinisi kudingeke afune izindlela ezintsha ukuthuthukiswa. It is hhayi kulindeleke ukuba ushintshe isimo emafutheni emakethe emhlabeni. Ngenxa wenani kukaphethiloli ku $ 55, izinguquko ezinhle kungalindeleka. Ukungabikho ephelele ukweseka uhulumeni ibhizinisi kudlala indima okungcono kakhulu. Uma siqhathanisa isimo nge 2008, ukufana kungabonwa kuphela conjuncture ka amanani kawoyela emakethe. Kuzo zonke ezinye izici kunomehluko, ikakhulukazi ezindaweni ukuthi uhlangabezana ukwehla ingcebo, amabhange kanye ukukhiqizwa ingxenye. Nakuba unswinyo kuthiwa iyakhula, futhi yokujama tsi uwoyela emakethe, kusasekuseni ukuqagula ukuthi lokhu lapho ubhekene nenhlekelele phezu eRussia. Izinhlelo ephethe tinge omuhle asitshela yona ngokuthuthukiswa kwezinjongo emkhakheni IT, ezokuxhumana kanye imithi. Banikezwe Inani elincane abahlala kulezi izingxenye umnotho, ukuthuthukisa global kuze kube yilapho owokugcina ukuzamukela.

I engenathemba kakhulu umhlahlo

Phakathi inombolo enkulu projection futhi ube isimo siba sibi sokuthuthukiswa izenzakalo zezwe. Kukhona okungenzeka ukuthi ekupheleni 2015, iningi izikhungo zezimali isimo, kuhlanganise obumba uhlelo lwezimali, umane hamba ayinamali. Lokhu kuzokwenzeka ngenxa ukukhula dollar ezingeni ruble 80. Intengo kawoyela lehla $ 40 emgqonyeni. izinguquko lwezezimali ku-GDP safinyelela ku-10% e-obomvu. Central Bank ziyophoqeleka ukukhulisa zenzalo kusuka 17% kuya ku-37%. Ngenxa yalokho, emhlabeni ngeke senqabe njengokukwethembisa kwakhe, utsheleke Russia, okungasenza kokuwa ngokuphelele isimo uhlelo lwezimali. Lesi simo ngisho akuvumeli okumele uzicabange uma obumbi kuzophela eRussia. Izibikezelo, ngisho ezinhle kakhulu, musa ukushintsha into.

Ngonyaka odlule, i-Russia uzigcinile nokukhula kwe-GDP at 0.5%. Isibalo 4% ngo 2015 namaqiniso, kodwa uma siqhathanisa ngayo ikusasa uwoyela iconsi, isibikezelo engenathemba kwakungeke kubonakale ihansi ezinjalo.

Konke kuncike uhulumeni

Esikhathini isimo wamanje, kuphela uhulumeni waseRussia uyakwazi ukuthola uma ukuqeda isimo esibucayi eRussia. Izibikezelo kukhona alunamsebenzi, kusukela simo esishubile of isimo kunqunywa ubuholi wezwe. Ngokwesibonelo, uma Central Bank ewohloza lokuma senzalo, okungukuthi nje namathemba angenaso isisekelo esizwakalayo, kuzobangela ukwenyuka kakhulu kwamandla emali. Kulokhu, sokuthuthuka kwezimakethe zokubolekiswa izohlala bathinteka. Ukuncipha e-GDP uzokwazi ukugcina ngaphakathi kwemikhawulo 4%. Kuncono ukuphathwa izixazululo uzokwazi ukuhola izwe aphume esibucayi kuphela uma intengo kawoyela uyovuka ukuze amadola 60. Kungakapheli neminyaka engu-2-3 sizokwazi ekulinganiseni isimo, inqobo nje uma utshalomali umnotfo wasekhaya akuyona ruble esingaphansi 3 trillion. Ingabe lwasekhaya kufanele nithathe lesi sinyathelo uhulumeni, akekho ongasho.

Lapho Inkinga iphelile: Russia kuyinqubomgomo anti-Inkinga

Ochwepheshe sithambekele inqubomgomo anti-Inkinga okudlangile isimo. Ngokwesibonelo, ingxenye enkulu yomsebenzi imali ukufukulwa komnotho zabelwe amabhange for uboleka ibhizinisi, okuyinto, ngokusho Uhulumeni, okufanele sigunyaze production ezifuywayo kwezimpahla. Ngu ukunakwa kwaba kuphela iqiniso lokuthi ngaphansi loan 30% kunoma ubani ayidingeki futhi izindleko zokukhiqiza izohlala engaphiwanga ngaleli zinga. Amabhange, eqaphela ibhalansi, ziqondise futhi izimali lwemali Ukuhwebelana for nomholo, okuyinto kuphela kwandisa izinga ukukhula siba sibi isimo. indima Obulalayo eyadlalwa ukwencika amafutha emnothweni okungahambisani nokukucabanga isikhathi lapho isimo esibucayi uphela eRussia. Eziphethe imakethe yomhlaba wonke zizoshintsha, okuyinto sizothinta isimo emnothweni kazwelonke. Uma uphatha ukuze usinde nobunzima, leli qiniso ngemuva kwesikhathi esithile ngokuqinisekile zishukumisa ukuvela igagasi elisha izinkinga.