Ukuwa kwe-ruble (ngo-2014). Isizathu sokuba kokuwa ruble

Umnotho Russian enqobe yolunye nobunzima, enye yazo - buthakathaka lwemali kazwelonke liqhathaniswa ne-dollar. Iyini imbangela yokuwa Ruble? Kuyini - into letindzala noma umphumela zokucabangela? Iyini imiphumela ngabantu abayizakhamuzi ezejwayelekile namabhizinisi?

I engenathemba umhlahlo

Ngokusho abanye abahlaziyi, ukubaluleka dollar sika-US ekupheleni 2014 angase akhule ruble 37-40 (noma-ke kuyoba isilinganiso US dollar exchange rate). Isizathu esiyinhloko buthakathaka imali yamaphepha Russian ngokuthi Ukuwohloka emnothweni kazwelonke. Ongoti, abangamalungu nabasekeli a Izibikezelo engenathemba njengale, nabo bayakholelwa ukuthi leli ongaphakeme kakade GDP Dynamics ziyokuwa okwengeziwe, futhi inhloko-dolobha - aphume yezwe.

Isikhundla ruble, abahlaziyi pessimists bakholwe kuyoncipha hhayi kuphela ngokumelene dollar, kodwa futhi kwezinye zezimali ezinkulu zomhlaba. Kukhona umbono ukuthi manje kukhona inkathi ukuzinza ukwehla ruble emnothweni isiRashiya, ngenxa Ukuwohloka ibhalansi ukukhokhelwa. Eziwohlokayo yokuma lwemali isiRashiya, abahlaziyi bathi, kungaba nomthelela inqubomgomo Federal Reserve System of the USA, okuyinto ngo-2014 bakwazi ukuqhubeka ukunciphisa izinyathelo yemali Umthelela emnothweni, futhi ngo-2015 ukuze uqale kukhuphula lizinga refinancing.

Ngokusho abahwebi

Abangochwepheshe emkhakheni kwamanye amazwe ukuthengiselana kubhekwa ukuthi isikhundla ruble liqhathaniswa ne-dollar akuyona okubi kunalokho nezinye zezimali. izingcindezi emakethe, ngokuvumelana abahwebi, ngatholakala ngine-, kanye dollar lase-Australia, i-peso Argentine kanye Turkish lwemali kazwelonke - the lira. Bonke ngothi lwabo, njengoba ruble - okubizwa ngokuthi "lezimpahla" imali. Ekupheleni 2014 dollar, ngokusho kongoti ukuhweba, kungaba abiza ruble 34-35, euro - amayunithi mayelana 45-46 of the lwemali Russian. Nokho, kungakapheli nonyaka ngabe, kungase kube iyehla iyenyuka.

Isizathu esiyinhloko kokuwa ruble, ukholwa abahwebi - ku global reorientation utshalomali notshwala - dolobha outflow kusuka izimakethe abasafufusa, elingelakwaJuda eRussia, futhi izimali iminotho amazwe athuthukile. Lokhu kuthambekela tisetjentiswe eminyakeni ezayo. Nokho, buthakathaka lwemali kazwelonke we Russian Federation, njengoba ochwepheshe zezimali ukholwa, ungaziqhenya kakhulu izakhamuzi: awokuthi ukukhula amanani umthengi.

Ngokubona imvelo yesayensi

Abanye ochwepheshe kusukela inombolo zezomnotho bakholelwa ukuthi ukwehla kwentengo Ruble kuba eside uhlamvu ngo-2014. Ngenxa yalokho lesi sinqumo of Central Bank ukunciphisa exchange angaphandle emakethe isiqondiso ingase ibuyekezwe. Nokho, uma izinga lokushintshisana kuzole, ibhange central kungase futhi buthaka ukulawula amabhidi. egudwini komgomo wokuboleka amabhange ngezimali kazwelonke, njengoba izazi zikholelwa incike incazelo efanele futhi ukuqonda ukukhula kwezomnotho. Ngokwesibonelo, ukukhuluma ngokukhula zomnotho ngesibonelo amazwe athuthukile, ngokososayensi, azikho izizathu, ngoba kukhona zabasebenzi ebiza kakhulu.

ukukhula Artificial ngokusebenzisa ekuqongeleleni ukulingana izimali - is, ngokusho kwabanye ochwepheshe, "bubble" ukuthi uyophahluka ekugcineni. Nokho, i-Russia, njengoba ososayensi bakholelwa, ukukhula kwezomnotho ingase iqale eziphathekayo, futhi kuba buthakathaka lwemali - isici wangempela umfutho walo. Ekwindla ka-the ruble anda nokuthengiswa, kuyilapho likhuphuka zimali inzuzo (kodwa kungase futhi yehlisa ukuthembeka emakethe).

I simo ukuthi ayemakhulu amathemba ababenawo

Naphezu kobuningi ngezimo ezingezinhle ngokuphathelene ruble liqhathaniswa ne-dollar kanye nomthelela wakhona emnothweni isiRashiya, kukhona phakathi zezomnotho kuyinto ngempela isimo sokulindela okuhle isimo. Kukhona inguqulo ukuthi ngo-2014 ezinye esibucayi, isici eminyakeni eyedlule, balahle zone euro, okuyinto esemqoka ukuhweba umlingani yeRussia. Umnotho lamazwe lapho lwemali olusemthethweni - euro, ngo-2014 kungenzeka ukhule ngamaphesenti angaphezu kuka-1%.

Lokhu kungaholela ekwandeni ukuthekelisa Russian of izinto zokusetshenziswa, kanye nokwanda intengo. Uma lokho kwenzeka, luyokhula insalela zehlangano Russian Federation, futhi ngemva kwaso ngeke ukubambezela outflow capital angaphandle. Umphumela uyobasekela njengoba ruble liqhathaniswa ne-dollar. Ngokwemibiko ye-simo ukuthi ayemakhulu amathemba ababenawo ezinjalo, nokukhula kwe-GDP waseRussia ekupheleni 2014 lingadlula 2.5%, kanti dollar exchange rate ngeke idlule ruble 33. Ngakho, unikezwa umhlahlo, abantu bayoba nini yokuncipha kokubaluleka ruble ngaphakathi 2014.

zokuhlola

Phakathi zezomnotho kukhona umbono ukuthi ukwehla of the ruble maqondana ehola zezimali zomhlaba - lo mkhuba omusha ngempela futhi zemvelo ngokuphelele emnothweni Russian. Ngisho noma singenayo acabangele Inkinga 1998 , lapho Russian yasebhange kazwelonke inothi dollar Ngawa izikhathi eziningana, ngokwanele ukuba ukhumbule komnotho ngowezi-umnotho 2008-2009. Khona-ke lwemali Russian usebhekene okungenani a ukwehla eqinile kuka ngo-2014. Nokho, njengoba izenzakalo kamuva kwabonisa, Ruble eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, ngokuqiniseka kudlalwa isikhundla dollar kanye euro.

Ungase futhi khumbula ukuhweba lwemali ekwindla ka 2012 - uma la makilasi libhekene simo esishubile okusezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu, ochwepheshe abaningi labikezela ukuwa okuseduze ruble, kodwa lokhu akwenzekanga. Namuhla, lwemali Russian uwile e intengo, kodwa isekelwe isipiliyoni zeminyaka eyedlule, futhi ayikwazi sininika ithuba lokwenza iziphetho efinyelela kude ku ukuqhubeka emnothweni kazwelonke. Ngo 2008-2009, emnothweni wayenezizathu ethize kokuwa ruble. 2014 th kungase kwembule nezinye izinto ezithinta lwemali Russian.

Amathrendi emazweni asathuthuka

Kukhona umbono phakathi osomnotho ukuthi ruble uziphatha lwemali zokuhweba emhlabeni efanayo imali yamaphepha nakwamanye amazwe asathuthuka, ikakhulukazi amazwe we-BRICS (okuyinto zibalwa njengoba Brazil, India, e-Russia, China neNingizimu Afrika, ngezinye izikhathi). Iqiniso lokuthi manje kukhona utshalomali outflow lembulunga yonke elinezinto ezinhlobonhlobo zimali angaphandle kusukela lezi iminotho. Sokuqeda lo lwemali kazwelonke, njengoba kunesizathu esihle ukuwa - Ruble, ngempela, yuan noma irandi akunandaba - factor ezivamile emazweni leqembu. Russia, ngaleyo ndlela futhi ukulahlekelwa elikhangayo for dolobha angaphandle.

Outflow lekusisa futhi uhlobene yokuthi US Federal Reserve kancane kancane some komgomo wokuboleka amabhange ngezimali, ukunciphisa Ukukhishwa zamadola okungaphephile nokukhuphula yasekhaya zenzalo ubhekene nenkinga yezimali. Ukulandela isibonelo umnotho ehola zomhlaba "kokuqina amabhande abo" nakwamanye amazwe athuthukile. Abatshali ngibona lo mkhuba, benamandla ngokuzethemba okukhulu kulezi izimakethe uthanda ukuthumela inhloko-dolobha yabo khona, kunokuba emazweni asathuthuka. Zezomnotho futhi aveze ukuthi-BRICS lwemali hhayi buthaka kakhulu njengoba dollar kwaqinisa ngenxa yezimo emakethe US ngcono.

izimbangela Yangaphakathi buthaka of the ruble

Falling ruble njengoba ezinye izazi zikholelwa, kungenxa hhayi izici zangaphakathi nezangaphandle. Okokuqala, ngenxa asebenzayo ukubuyekeza Central Bank of Russia namalayisense kusukela amabhange yangasese - ngo-2013 inqubo wenziwa 20-yasebhange yisikhungo sezinhlangano eziphambili zezezimali. I resonant kakhulu sandulela - kuvalwe "Master-Bank", enye yezindawo ezinkulu kakhulu kuleli zwe. Okwesibili, Bank of Russia wanquma kancane kancane uyayekela of the ruble e "ezintantayo khulula".

Isizathu salokhu - isifiso ukugqugquzela ukuthuthukiswa kwamabubulo yezwe, okuyinto akulula ukulondoloza inzuzo ukuthekelisa. "Ababuthakathaka" ruble kungaba kakhulu ukunciphisa intengo kwezimpahla Russian futhi wenze production ezifuywayo wokuncintisana kakhudlwana. Abanye osomnotho bakholelwa ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla kazwelonke we Russian Federation iziphathimandla inzuzo: ukubolekisa ezithathwe izibopho kahulumeni in ruble, kanye nenzuzo uwoyela ibalwa ngamadola wase-US. Nge ekukhuleni dollar isimo uzothola kunanini lwemali kazwelonke ukukhokha inzalo izibopho.

Imiphumela buthakathaka ruble

Yini esongela ukwehla of the ruble? Naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi buthakathaka lwemali - lena, okokuqala kunakho konke, izinkomba macroeconomic, imiphumela zalesi simo okungase kuthintwe futhi abayizakhamuzi ezejwayelekile. Ngokusho kodokotela abathile, ukuwa lwemali kazwelonke Russia kungaholela ngamanani yezimpahla amazwe (ikakhulukazi electronics, izimoto, nemithi, izingubo, kanye emphahleni, izinto zokusetshenziswa ukwenziwa lapho kuthengwa phesheya).

Inani ukushaywa lezi izingxenye njengoba abahlaziyi elilinganisiwe, akwazi ukuxoxa 15%. Ngaphezu kwalokho, leli holidi ezibizayo esengeziwe baseRussia phesheya (ikakhulukazi emazweni asethuthukile). Amanani amathikithi endiza namahhotela kuvetwa ikakhulukazi ngamadola wase-US, nokubaluleka kwayo okuzisholo, naphezu lwemali iyehla iyenyuka, uhlala ingashintshiwe, okusho ukuthi ukubaluleka langempela bezindleko nohambo kusukela ukuhunyushwa Russian lwemali iyakhula. Izakhamizi ngaleyo ndlela akukwazi qakala lo mkhuba falling Rouble. Yini buthakathaka ngokwengeziwe imali yamaphepha kazwelonke we Russian Federation, zezomnotho ukuchaza ngempela lucidly.

Fed isici

Njengoba kuphawulwe ngenhla, kukhona inkolelo yokuthi Ruble ngokumelene dollar kuncike ngqo inqubomgomo Federal Reserve System. Manje lokhu inhlangano yezimali kunciphisa uhlelo okuthiwa "Umane" lapho yokunyathelisa ekhishwe zamadola okungaphephile. Fed kunciphisa ukuthenga izibopho kanye mortgage izinkontileka. Ubuholi entsha Federal Reserve System uthembisa indlela nezimo ukusebenza lolu hlelo. Sinale isikhungo sezezimali izinguquko ezithile esikhathini ubuhlobo neziphathimandla. Uma edlule le Fed kwadingeka aqinisekise iCongress of the isidingo ukwandisa ophahleni debt umphakathi, kodwa manje lokhu akwenzi mqondo - IPhalamende American inelungelo ukuchibiyela ophahleni nganoma yisiphi isikhathi. Lokhu, osomnotho abakholelwa, kusiza ukunciphisa izingozi emnothweni US kusukela Federal Reserve System. Ngakho, emakethe US has a sethubeni elihle neliqinisayo futhi, ngenxa yalokho, eqinisa dollar international lwemali yokuhweba.

Izinzuzo nezingozi buthakathaka ruble

Ukuwa kwe-ruble - into ukuthi akusebenzi njalo emnothweni omubi. Kukhona le mkhuba ngebuhle nebubi. Phakathi izinzuzo obungenakuphikwa - anda izimali izinkampani ukuthumela kwenye indawo futhi, ngenxa yalokho, ukukhula ukukhokha intela kwesabelomali Russia. Sishukunyiswe yokungenisa esikhundleni - intengo izimpahla angaphandle ukwanda, futhi kuba inzuzo engaphezulu ukuthenga imikhiqizo zokukhiqiza yasekhaya. Lokho kwenza komnotho. Ngakwelinye ihlangothi, ukuze baqonde ukuthi yini esongela iconsi ruble, kuyafaneleka ukukhumbula ukuthi isikweletu wezangaPhandle. Lena imali ukuthi izakhamizi wathatha kwezilwandle - ngokuvamile kumadola. Ngakho-ke, ububi eyinhloko buthakathaka lwemali Russian - ukwanda umthwalo ababoleka ezinjalo. Isikweletu sangaphandle Russia manje ezigidigidini zamaRandi (ngokuvumelana izibalo ezinye izazi, ke lidlule kakade izinqolobane wezwe international). kuyadamba Long futhi okuphawulekayo we ruble iba akunakunisiza izinkampani (ikakhulukazi ngamabhange) ukuthi kudingeka abakweletwayo angaphandle.

Isibikezelo sezulu sezinsuku amabhange

Amabhange ngobukhulu Russian kanye angaphandle bazama ukuhlola kokuwa ruble futhi zibikezela Dynamics ikusasa lwemali kazwelonke we Russian Federation. Kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi zokuthenga ngesikweletu setha ngokuvamile okuhle ngendlela engakholeki. Amabhange ezifana "VTB Capital", Morgan Stanley, kanye "Alfa-Bank", kulindeleke ukuthi ekupheleni 2014 dollar izobiza ruble 35. Citi, "Ukutholwa", "Uralsib" bheka ruble kakhulu ukuqinisa: ezincwadini kwalezi zikhungo uvele izibalo phakathi 32,3 futhi 34,5 we Russian lwemali amayunithi ngayinye US yasebhange inothi kuze kube sekupheleni konyaka. Eziningana ubukeka umhlahlo ophambene Ruble ngu HSBC (35,4 dollar ngalinye), "Renaissance" (35.5). Ukuwohloka okukhulu kunakho konke lwemali Russian ubona UBS (36,5). Kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi phakathi projection maqondana osebeni ruble ngokumelene ezinye izinhlobo zemali ezinkulu zomhlaba - euro - futhi siyenzeka umehluko okukhulu - kusukela 43,4 (Morgan Stanley) ukuze 48,4 RF amayunithi ngayinye euro imali yamaphepha (Citi).